6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ZOOTOPIA 2 Updates, FNAF2 ($35M+) and AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH ($95M+) Pacing Off from Predecessors, & More Updates

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• While Wicked: For Good storms theaters over the next few days, Disney’s anticipated Zootopia 2 continues to gain momentum in pre-release tracking. Models are showing an acceleration in pre-sales more akin to those of Inside Out 2 rather than Moana 2, the latter of which opened on the same Wednesday before Thanksgiving last year but proved to be heavily front-loaded relative to many animated titles.
• We’re removing Wake Up Dead Man from the chart temporarily as it remains unclear how widely Netflix will release the film in theaters next week. Early pre-sales are so far similar to Glass Onion on a per-theater basis when compared to our market samples from 2022.
• Come December, a number of films will supply theater screens for the holidays, though current models show enough justification to adjust expectations around a few key titles.
  • Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 remains well behind the pace of its predecessor’s pre-sale path even with a purely theatrical launch this time around. We suspect this continues to be a combination of naturally diminished returns after some mixed reception from fans, as well as the theoretical consequence of FNAF1‘s day-and-date release on streaming and in theaters which may be creating expectation for the same this time. A release week surge could still happen, but time will tell.
  • Pre-sales began for Avatar: Fire and Ash this past week, and as expected in previous forecasts, they are behind the benchmark of The Way of Water. Some caveats here include a one-week longer sales window, as well as much higher average ticket prices with premium formats (unsurprisingly) dominating fan-driven sales at this stage. It’s wise to scale back expectations for the domestic opening right now even though the franchise has a penchant for over-delivering in the chase weeks and global run. Tracking could rebound next month, but a heavier slate of competition this December and less pent-up demand for a sequel continue pointing toward a debut frame below TWOW.
  • On the plus side, Angel Studios’ David is tracking well ahead of The King of Kings at the same point before release. It’s now included in our forecasts below.
  • Similarly, we’re scaling back expectations on Anaconda as an R-rated comedy in a crowded market even with a possible holiday corridor boost.
  • While we are internally tracking releases for New Year’s and the first weekend of January, we’ll offer up forecasts at a later date.

6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/20/25

(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.