The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
With Halloween landing on a Friday this year, studios are mostly sitting out the frame our six-week outlook peeks into. With a diminishing slate in the back end of October, we’re rolling out the full forecast chart for a readers this week.
The latest updates on upcoming releases:
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- One Battle After Another‘s review embargo lifted this week, yielding an impressive 97 percent fresh score from 69 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of Thursday morning. Pre-sale pacing could begin to accelerate in a noticeable way as release weekend approaches and buzz around the film grows. We’ll continue to monitor trends in the days ahead.
- Conversely, The Smashing Machine‘s pre-sale launch has been a little slower than expected. With two weeks left to build momentum, it could yet reach slightly higher than current forecasts, but if the aforementioned One Battle breaks out with audiences one week before, timing may end up something of a concern for Smashing Machine releasing in close proximity to that film and right before another male-driven Tron: Ares on October 10. Early reviews for Smashing stand at 78 percent fresh from 64 submissions.
- As for Halloween weekend itself, cinemas can expected generally light attendance on that Friday as families take their kids trick-or-treat-ing while other adults celebrate the holiday with parties and get-togethers.
- Because of this, the main releases will be Universal’s 40th anniversary re-issue of Back to the Future, currently trending similar to Jaws‘ 50th anniversary in pre-release metrics.
- Fathom will play each film in the Twilight franchise as one-night-only events in honor of the book’s 20th anniversary. As Fathom has not consistently reported box office earnings this year, we’re holding off on forecasts for the time being.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/18/25
(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
9/26/2025 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie |
Universal Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$66,000,000 |
9/26/2025 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$24,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$26,500,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$116,000,000 |
$79,500,000 |
9/26/2025 |
The Strangers: Chapter 2 |
Lionsgate |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Anemone (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Avatar: The Way of Water (2025 Re-Release) |
Disney |
$6,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$12,300,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Bone Lake |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Casper (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Good Boy |
IFC Entertainment Group |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Perfect Blue Remastered |
GKIDS |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
$10,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$52,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
10/10/2025 |
After the Hunt (Limited) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Anemone (Moderate Expansion) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Fairyland |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Kiss of the Spider Woman |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Roofman |
Paramount Pictures |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
10/10/2025 |
Soul on Fire |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$18,800,000 |
10/10/2025 |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$42,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$47,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
10/17/2025 |
After the Hunt (Expansion) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$18,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
10/17/2025 |
Blue Moon (Limited) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
10/17/2025 |
Pets on a Train |
Viva Pictures |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Truth & Treason |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,300,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$9,600,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Blue Moon (Expansion) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Bugonia (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony Pictures |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Desert Road |
Independent Films |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Eli Roth Presents: Dream Eater |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Shelby Oaks |
Neon |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Untitled The Horror Section Release |
Iconic Events |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Regretting You |
Paramount Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
Disney |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
10/29/2025 |
Anniversary |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/29/2025 |
Stitch Head |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
||||||
10/29/2025 |
Twilight (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
10/30/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
10/31/2025 |
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$11,250,000 |
$7,500,000 |
10/31/2025 |
Bugonia (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
10/31/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/1/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/2/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.