Tracking & Forecasts

6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: BACK TO THE FUTURE & TWILIGHT Re-Issues to Highlight Halloween; ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and More Updates

Photo Credits: Dean Cundey & Universal ("Back to the Future"); Elliot Davis & Lionsgate ("Twilight")

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter

With Halloween landing on a Friday this year, studios are mostly sitting out the frame our six-week outlook peeks into. With a diminishing slate in the back end of October, we’re rolling out the full forecast chart for a readers this week.

The latest updates on upcoming releases:

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • One Battle After Another‘s review embargo lifted this week, yielding an impressive 97 percent fresh score from 69 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of Thursday morning. Pre-sale pacing could begin to accelerate in a noticeable way as release weekend approaches and buzz around the film grows. We’ll continue to monitor trends in the days ahead.
  • Conversely, The Smashing Machine‘s pre-sale launch has been a little slower than expected. With two weeks left to build momentum, it could yet reach slightly higher than current forecasts, but if the aforementioned One Battle breaks out with audiences one week before, timing may end up something of a concern for Smashing Machine releasing in close proximity to that film and right before another male-driven Tron: Ares on October 10. Early reviews for Smashing stand at 78 percent fresh from 64 submissions.
  • As for Halloween weekend itself, cinemas can expected generally light attendance on that Friday as families take their kids trick-or-treat-ing while other adults celebrate the holiday with parties and get-togethers.
    • Because of this, the main releases will be Universal’s 40th anniversary re-issue of Back to the Future, currently trending similar to Jaws‘ 50th anniversary in pre-release metrics.
    • Fathom will play each film in the Twilight franchise as one-night-only events in honor of the book’s 20th anniversary. As Fathom has not consistently reported box office earnings this year, we’re holding off on forecasts for the time being.

6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/18/25

(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)

Release Date
Title
Distributor
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast
9/26/2025
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Universal Pictures
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$24,000,000
$56,000,000
$88,000,000
$66,000,000
9/26/2025
One Battle After Another
Warner Bros. Pictures
$24,000,000
$34,000,000
$26,500,000
$60,000,000
$116,000,000
$79,500,000
9/26/2025
The Strangers: Chapter 2
Lionsgate
$5,000,000
$9,000,000
$6,500,000
$10,000,000
$24,000,000
$16,000,000
10/3/2025
Anemone (Limited)
Focus Features
10/3/2025
Avatar: The Way of Water (2025 Re-Release)
Disney
$6,500,000
$11,000,000
$9,000,000
$9,000,000
$25,000,000
$12,300,000
10/3/2025
Bone Lake
Bleecker Street
10/3/2025
Casper (30th Anniversary)
Universal Pictures
10/3/2025
Good Boy
IFC Entertainment Group
$3,000,000
$6,000,000
$5,000,000
$10,500,000
$17,000,000
$10,000,000
10/3/2025
Perfect Blue Remastered
GKIDS
10/3/2025
The Smashing Machine
A24
$10,000,000
$19,000,000
$14,000,000
$25,000,000
$52,000,000
$42,000,000
10/10/2025
After the Hunt (Limited)
Amazon MGM Studios
10/10/2025
Anemone (Moderate Expansion)
Focus Features
10/10/2025
Fairyland
Lionsgate
10/10/2025
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Roadside Attractions
10/10/2025
Roofman
Paramount Pictures
$6,000,000
$11,000,000
$6,500,000
$15,000,000
$35,000,000
$17,500,000
10/10/2025
Soul on Fire
Sony Pictures
$4,000,000
$8,000,000
$6,000,000
$9,500,000
$34,000,000
$18,800,000
10/10/2025
Tron: Ares
Disney
$42,000,000
$55,000,000
$47,000,000
$105,000,000
$145,000,000
$115,000,000
10/17/2025
After the Hunt (Expansion)
Amazon MGM Studios
10/17/2025
Black Phone 2
Universal Pictures
$18,000,000
$28,000,000
$24,000,000
$45,000,000
$75,000,000
$60,000,000
10/17/2025
Blue Moon (Limited)
Sony Pictures Classics
10/17/2025
Good Fortune
Lionsgate
$8,000,000
$13,000,000
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$45,000,000
$30,000,000
10/17/2025
Pets on a Train
Viva Pictures
10/17/2025
Truth & Treason
Angel Studios
$2,000,000
$6,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,300,000
$17,000,000
$9,600,000
10/24/2025
Blue Moon (Expansion)
Sony Pictures Classics
10/24/2025
Bugonia (Limited)
Focus Features
10/24/2025
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc
Sony Pictures
$7,000,000
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
$11,000,000
$24,000,000
$19,000,000
10/24/2025
Desert Road
Independent Films
10/24/2025
Eli Roth Presents: Dream Eater
Iconic Releasing
10/24/2025
Shelby Oaks
Neon
10/24/2025
Untitled The Horror Section Release
Iconic Events
10/24/2025
Regretting You
Paramount Pictures
$12,000,000
$17,000,000
$14,000,000
$32,000,000
$55,000,000
$49,000,000
10/24/2025
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Disney
$15,000,000
$25,000,000
$19,000,000
$54,000,000
$94,000,000
$75,000,000
10/29/2025
Anniversary
Lionsgate
10/29/2025
Stitch Head
Briarcliff Entertainment
10/29/2025
Twilight (2025 Re-Release)
Fathom Entertainment
10/30/2025
The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2025 Re-Release)
Fathom Entertainment
10/31/2025
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary)
Universal Pictures
$4,000,000
$7,500,000
$5,000,000
$5,000,000
$11,250,000
$7,500,000
10/31/2025
Bugonia (Wide Expansion)
Focus Features
$1,500,000
$5,000,000
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$18,000,000
$7,000,000
10/31/2025
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (2025 Re-Release)
Fathom Entertainment
11/1/2025
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (2025 Re-Release)
Fathom Entertainment
11/2/2025
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (2025 Re-Release)
Fathom Entertainment

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.