Tracking & Forecasts

5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: SPEAK NO EVIL Early Box Office Projections, Plus ALIEN: ROMULUS, BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE, & More Updates

Photo Credits: Universal Pictures ("Speak No Evil"); Haris Zambarloukos & Warner Bros. Pictures ("Beetlejuice Beetlejuice"); 20th Century Studios. © 2024 20th Century Studios. All Rights Reserved. ("Alien: Romulus")

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

This week’s outlook continues a peak at September’s early fall slate alongside the most current projections for key August releases.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • Universal and Blumhouse will aim to continue their successful track record with the James McAvoy-led Speak No Evil, a remake of the popular 2022 Danish thriller. With several significant releases between now and this title’s planned mid-September release, forecasts could evolve as they often do for non-franchise and thriller/horror releases. Trailer placement has been considerably strong in front of similar genre theatrical releases this summer. The film is positioned as the main adult-skewing, horror-thriller of September with little in the way of direct competition until mid-October’s Smile 2, although Speak No Evil does run up against the second and ongoing frames of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, followed by Never Let Go later in the month and Joker: Folie à Deux in October.
  • Alien: Romulus continues to show strong signals from its core fan base of sci-fi and horror fans as pre-sales from our sample theatrical markets pace well ahead of where Furiosa stood at the same point and slightly ahead of Scream VI.
  • The first few days of pre-sales for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice have reinforced our bullish forecasts published last week as the horror-comedy sequel looks poised to kick off the fall season on a very strong note. We’ll continue to monitor pre-release buzz in case forecast adjustments are needed over the next few weeks.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/9/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
Release Date
Title
Studio
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total TARGET Forecast
8/16/2024
Alien: Romulus
Disney / 20th Century Studios
$41,000,000
$51,000,000
$46,000,000
$82,000,000
$110,000,000
$102,900,000
8/16/2024
Consumed
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
8/16/2024
My Penguin Friend
Roadside Attractions
n/a
n/a
8/16/2024
Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure
Falling Forward Films
n/a
n/a
8/16/2024
Skincare
IFC Films
n/a
n/a
8/23/2024
Blink Twice
Amazon / MGM
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/23/2024
The Crow
Lionsgate
$7,500,000
$11,000,000
$9,100,000
$15,800,000
$28,600,000
$22,000,000
8/23/2024
The Forge
Sony / AFFIRM Films
$7,000,000
$12,000,000
$8,500,000
$20,000,000
$49,000,000
$34,000,000
8/29/2024
Shaun of the Dead (2024 Re-Issue in Dolby Cinema)
Focus Features
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
1992
Lionsgate
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
AfrAId
Sony / Columbia Pictures
$7,000,000
$12,000,000
$8,000,000
$14,500,000
$34,600,000
$18,000,000
8/30/2024
City of Dreams
Roadside Attractions
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
Reagan
ShowBiz Direct
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
Slingshot
Bleecker Street
n/a
n/a
9/6/2024
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. Pictures
$57,000,000
$79,000,000
$76,000,000
$143,000,000
$229,800,000
$202,300,000
9/6/2024
The Front Room
A24
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9/6/2024
I’ll Be Right There
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
9/12/2024
God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
9/12/2024
Usher: Rendezvous in Paris
AMC Theatres / Trafalgar Releasing
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Am I Racist?
SDG Releasing
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Believer
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
The Killer’s Game
Lionsgate
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
DAN DA DAN: First Encounter
GKIDS
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Meanwhile on Earth
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Speak No Evil
Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$16,500,000
$42,400,000
$65,000,000
$50,200,000
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.

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