This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
After an early fall box office that’s been more up and down than once hoped for, one more lull before the heart of holiday season is expected to set in on this post-Halloween weekend.
Here
November 1, 2024
Sony Pictures / TriStar
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $7 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 – 7 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- This weekend’s primary major studio release, Here, hopes to bring out older audiences and fans of Tom Hanks and director Robert Zemeckis. The latter reunites the former with their Forrest Gump co-star Robin Wright in a uniquely filmed drama that will cater mainly to audiences over the age of 45. That demographic has been the most selective about going out to movie theaters in the era of streaming and shortened theatrical windows, and unfortunately, critics’ reviews (34 percent fresh from 35 Rotten Tomatoes submissions) probably won’t convince many on the fence.
- Last week’s top film, Venom: The Last Dance, will again reign in its sophomore frame. Word of mouth is comparable to the two franchise predecessors as it boasts an 80 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. Despite the film’s $51 million domestic start representing a sharp decline from those prior films, the window for staying power is arguably stronger for Last Dance as it faces no significant competition for the next three weekends and will retain PLF formats this coming frame.
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Other notable releases and expansions this weekend include Warner Bros.’ limited distribution of Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2, Fathom’s re-issue of John Wick in celebration of that franchise’s 10th anniversary, Toho’s re-issue of Godzilla Minus One, NEON’s expansion of Anora (included in forecasts below), and more. Lionsgate will also sneak preview The Best Christmas Pageant Ever on Saturday evening, though grosses are likely to be rolled into next weekend’s official opening of that film.
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With few significant releases entering the market and coming off of Halloween this Thursday, holdovers should generally expect to see moderate-to-soft drops. The continuing wild card factor will be whether or not the World Series extends into Friday and Saturday as the Los Angeles Dodgers could eliminate the New York Yankees on Wednesday night. If not, Game 6 would be played Friday evening and an if-necessary Game 7 would land Saturday night.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 7 percent below the same weekend in 2023 ($56.1 million) and 48 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($99.3 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 3 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Venom: The Last Dance | Sony Pictures / Columbia | $21,200,000 | -58% | $82,800,000 | ~4,131 |
| Smile 2 | Paramount Pictures | $6,200,000 | -35% | $51,300,000 | ~3,500 |
| The Wild Robot | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | $5,000,000 | -27% | $119,200,000 | ~3,300 |
| Here | Sony Pictures / TriStar | $4,500,000 | NEW | $4,500,000 | ~2,650 |
| Conclave | Focus Features | $4,000,000 | -39% | $13,600,000 | ~1,753 |
| We Live In Time | A24 | $3,400,000 | -30% | $17,700,000 | ~3,000 |
| Terrifier 3 | Cineverse / Iconic Events | $2,900,000 | -39% | $49,800,000 | ~2,400 |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,000,000 | -36% | $291,700,000 | ~2,500 |
| Anora | NEON | $1,900,000 | 109% | $4,000,000 | ~250 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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