This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s short-range outlook glances ahead at Martin Luther King Jr. Weekend, set for the release of Universal and Blumhouse’s Wolf Man and Sony’s One of Them Days alongside the expansion of Paramount’s September 5.
For inquiries on forward-looking box office projection services, please contact us.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- While Blumhouse titles had a bit softer track record in 2024 than usual with the likes of Night Swim and Imaginary early in the year, preliminary metrics for director Leigh Whannell’s (The Invisible Man, Insidious, Saw) are encouraging for a mid-winter horror genre standout. Trailer footprints and social media activity compare favorably with those of Smile 2 earlier this fall and the film faces minimal direct competition. Brand awareness and star Julia Garner (Ozark) should aid appeal among adult audiences in addition to Blumhouse’s occasionally younger lean.
- Closer to the home front, Christmas releases are ready to jam-pack cinemas and moviegoers should respond to the variety of content. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 especially continues to accelerate as it enters late-stage tracking with pre-sales eclipsing Sonic 2 in multiple sample markets (shoutout to BOT Forum member M37 for their added insights). Strong early reviews from critics, plus synergistic Christmas tie-in buzz, could further propel the film through the long Christmas and New Year’s stretch with models indicating a four-quad run similar to Jumanji: The Next Level isn’t out of the question. The franchise is riding a wave of goodwill thanks to its family and fan appeal, strong reception for the first two films, and the return of Jim Carrey who has hit the marketing circuit hard in recent days/weeks.
- Conversely, we are increasingly expecting a slightly more backloaded run for Mufasa, which continues to have healthy prospects but faces stiff competition from Sonic as well as direct audience crossover with the staying power of Wicked and Moana 2. Again, early critics’ reviews are encouraging here as well, so this will likely be a marathon rather than a sprint.
- Meanwhile, Nosferatu continues to build steam leading up to its Christmas Day release as it begins to distance itself as the frontrunner for that day’s handful of new releases.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/12/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
Release Pattern |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
12/20/2024 |
The Brutalist |
A24 |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/20/2024 |
Homestead |
Angel Studios |
Wide |
$3,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
12/20/2024 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
Wide |
$45,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$49,000,000 (-16%) |
$209,000,000 |
$290,000,000 |
$245,000,000 (-15%) |
12/20/2024 |
Nickel Boys (LA Expansion) |
Amazon / MGM |
Platform |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/20/2024 |
The Room Next Door |
Sony Pictures Classic |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/20/2024 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
Wide |
$74,000,000 |
$89,000,000 |
$86,000,000 (+27%) |
$231,000,000 |
$312,000,000 |
$292,000,000 (+53%) |
12/25/2024 |
Babygirl |
A24 |
Wide |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,700,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
12/25/2024 |
Better Man (Platform) |
Paramount Pictures |
Platform |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/25/2024 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
Wide |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 (+25%) |
$35,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$49,000,000 (+32%) |
12/25/2024 |
The Fire Inside |
Amazon MGM Studios |
Wide |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
12/25/2024 |
Nosferatu |
Focus Features |
Wide |
$12,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$14,800,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$64,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
12/27/2024 |
2073 |
Neon |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
1/3/2025 |
(no releases scheduled) |
||||||||
1/10/2025 |
Better Man (Wide) |
Paramount Pictures |
Wide |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
1/10/2025 |
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera |
Lionsgate |
Wide |
$14,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
1/10/2025 |
Hard Truths (Expansion) |
Bleecker Street |
Wide |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
1/10/2025 |
The Last Showgirl (Expansion) |
Roadside Attractions |
TBD |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
1/17/2025 |
Levon’s Trade |
Amazon MGM Studios |
TBD |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
1/17/2025 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
Wide |
$7,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$20,600,000 |
1/17/2025 |
September 5 (Expansion) |
Paramount |
TBD |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
1/17/2025 |
Wolf Man |
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse |
Wide |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$67,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.