This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- F1‘s trailer launches have generated great traction (no pun intended) across social channels in recent months as excitement among Formula One racing and action movie fans begins to escalate for the summer tentpole.
- Brad Pitt’s star presence and racer Lewis Hamilton’s involvement are notable drivers (okay, pun intended that time) in buzz, not to mention Joseph Kosinski’s prior genre history (Top Gun: Maverick, Tron: Legacy, Oblivion) and F1‘s filmed-for-IMAX event nature that will drive premium screen demand across the board. If word of mouth is strong, this could be for 4DX what Twisters was last summer.
- Positioned on the weekend before Independence Day in the United States, the film serves as a marquee male-driven tentpole countering the holiday week’s own release of Jurassic World Rebirth.
- Early modeling and trailer metrics offer a field of comps with varying potential, ranging from the aforementioned Twisters to Gladiator II and Ford v Ferrari.
- M3GAN 2.0 hopes to offset the adult-driven speed spectacle on the June 27 frame with appeal to young fans of the PG-13 breakout original from 2023.
- Blumhouse and Universal have already launched a marketing campaign targeted toward the core audience of young women and horror-comedy fans, but competition against the second frame of 28 Years Later could be notable.
- Historically speaking, Blumhouse (and horror, in general) sequels see diminished returns from their predecessors with rare exceptions. Social media growth for this sequel will difficult to measure up against the viral sensation which became the first film thanks to the unexpectedly famous dance sequence.
- Turning attention to more immediate releases:
- Lilo & Stitch continues to impress in late-stage tracking and pre-sales, trending well ahead of 2023’s The Little Mermaid (which also opened over Memorial Day weekend) and last fall’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. Final week acceleration pacing will be key to watch with regards to whether or not the film is poised to break out even further beyond current indications.
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, again, remains steady in its positioning following this week’s wave of positive reviews for the eighth, and presumably final, chapter in the Tom Cruise-led franchise.
- Between Lilo and Mission, Memorial Day weekend continues shaping up to potentially be one for the record books.
- While pre-sales for Ballerina and Karate Kid: Legends just began, it’s too early to judge their impact on overall forecasts. Revisions on those fronts this week are more anchored by typical market model adjustments, though Karate Kid in particular looks to have an increasing challenge ahead with a fair amount of competition surrounding it.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/15/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in the Box Office Theory newsletter on Substack)
Release Date |
Title |
Distribution Studio |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
5/23/2025 |
The Last Rodeo |
Angel Studios |
$5,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$19,900,000 |
5/23/2025 |
Lilo & Stitch |
Disney |
$115,000,000 |
$132,000,000 |
$118,000,000 |
$350,000,000 |
$509,000,000 |
$408,500,000 |
5/23/2025 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount Pictures |
$59,000,000 |
$67,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$175,000,000 |
$225,000,000 |
$205,000,000 |
5/30/2025 |
Bring Her Back |
A24 |
$7,500,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
5/30/2025 |
Karate Kid: Legends |
Sony Pictures |
$31,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$95,000,000 |
$123,000,000 |
$104,000,000 |
5/30/2025 |
The Phoenician Scheme (Limited) |
Focus Features |
$750,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
n/a |
||
5/31/2025 |
MetOpera: Il Barbiere di Siviglia |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
Ballerina |
Lionsgate |
$37,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$89,000,000 |
$126,500,000 |
$103,000,000 |
6/6/2025 |
Brokeback Mountain (20th Anniversary) |
Focus Features |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
Dan Da Dan: Evil Eye |
GKIDS |
$750,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$850,000 |
$1,700,000 |
$1,100,000 |
6/6/2025 |
Dangerous Animals |
IFC |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
The Life of Chuck |
NEON |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
The Phoenician Scheme (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
6/6/2025 |
The Ritual |
XYZ Films |
n/a |
|||||
6/13/2025 |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal Pictures |
$65,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$72,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
$247,000,000 |
$230,000,000 |
6/13/2025 |
Materialists |
A24 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
6/13/2025 |
The Unholy Trinity |
Roadside Attractions |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
|
6/13/2025 |
Untitled Shudder Film |
Shudder |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/15/2025 |
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/20/2025 |
28 Years Later |
Sony Pictures |
$42,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$96,000,000 |
$141,000,000 |
$120,000,000 |
6/20/2025 |
Bride Hard |
Magenta Light Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/20/2025 |
Elio |
Disney |
$34,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
$215,000,000 |
$201,000,000 |
6/20/2025 |
Sovereign |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/27/2025 |
F1 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$47,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$51,000,000 |
$136,000,000 |
$220,000,000 |
$190,000,000 |
6/27/2025 |
M3GAN 2.0 |
Universal Pictures |
$16,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
6/27/2025 |
Sorry, Baby |
A24 |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.