This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $70 — 85 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$35 million+
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $19 — 24 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: n/a
The Long Walk
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $6 — 10 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$10 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As outlined in previous reports, Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle has brewed up a storm in pre-sale and social media activity with record-levels of interest for the anime medium/genre. Castle is already well beyond the pre-release trends of 2021’s Mugen Train, which bowed to $21.2 million stateside (the #2 anime opening in history behind 1999’s Pokémon: The First Movie – Mewtwo Strikes Back ($31.0 million), trending more comparable to the likes of Five Nights of Freddy’s and TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR in our sample market observations. Both of those aforementioned anime benchmarks will fall this weekend even amidst the expectation that the event release will be highly front-loaded by a very loyal fan base. Early access shows began Tuesday night.
- Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is also posting healthy final-stage trends with a “finale bump” bringing out the core fan audience, primarily women over 40. The third feature film is outpacing 2022’s A New Era, and though not expected to match the pre-COVID and pre-streaming explosion numbers of 2019’s first Downton leap to the big screen, The Grand Finale is nonetheless looking like a strong counter-programmer this weekend.
- The Long Walk will hope to ride its wave of strong industry reviews and appeal to today’s version of the “young adult” moviegoers. Still, with a targeted audience of young men, it faces some competition against Infinity Castle and the holdover business of The Conjuring: Last Rites, which should continue to perform well across mainstream and horror moviegoers.
- Spinal Tap II: The End Continues makes a play in semi-wide release with another fan-driven push (noticing a trend this weekend?) but is likely to cap out with appeal among the 35-plus male demographic.
- Meanwhile, Toy Story‘s 30th anniversary re-release will also go in semi-wide release with modest expectations.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 72 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($86.1 million), led by Beetlejuice Beetlejuice‘s $51.3 million second frame and Speak No Evil‘s $11.4 million debut, and 53 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($97.0 million), led by It: Chapter Two‘s $39.6 million second frame and Hustlers‘ $33.2 million bow.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 14 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$73,200,000 |
NEW |
$73,200,000 |
~3,000 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. |
$30,500,000 |
-64% |
$136,100,000 |
~3,802 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
$20,200,000 |
NEW |
$20,200,000 |
~3,500 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$7,500,000 |
NEW |
$7,500,000 |
~2,500 |
Hamilton |
Disney |
$3,300,000 |
-67% |
$16,100,000 |
~1,825 |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. |
$3,600,000 |
-31% |
$148,200,000 |
~2,400 |
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues |
Bleecker Street |
$3,500,000 |
NEW |
$3,500,000 |
~1,800 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$2,500,000 |
-35% |
$91,300,000 |
~2,300 |
The Bad Guys 2 |
Universal |
$1,800,000 |
-28% |
$80,000,000 |
~2,100 |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney / Marvel |
$1,900,000 |
-34% |
$272,900,000 |
~1,900 |
Toy Story (30th Anniversary Re-Release) |
Disney |
$1,000,000 |
NEW |
$1,000,000 |
~1,300 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.