The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (January 16)
- With $2.1 million from domestic previews on Thursday, the sequel looks to open somewhat below industry expectations and our final forecasts of $20 million-plus. We’re now projecting a four-day debut around $15 million.
- The Bride! (March 6)
- Interest from cinephiles is notable for director Maggie Gyllenhaal’s period thriller take on the classic Frankenstein narrative, while Jessie Buckley’s star turn following Hamnet award season buzz and Christian Bale’s ever-present drawing factor could be important. An IMAX release is also encouraging, but box office receipts from recent auteur films like Mickey 17 and One Battle After Another, combined with challenging commercial audience reach, give reason for modest expectations at the moment.
- Hoppers (March 6)
- Similarly, Pixar’s recent history with original animated releases has been quite different from the performances of their franchise sequels. Hoppers is well-positioned with a release during spring break windows, while “animated comedy featuring cute talking animals” is always a potential recipe for success among parents with kids. With that in mind, though, it opens in between February’s GOAT and the looming Super Mario Galaxy Movie come April, so legs will likely be the name of the game rather than a massive debut.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/15/26
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
1/16/2026 |
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
Sony Pictures |
$11,600,000 |
$15,100,000 |
$13,700,000 |
$15,400,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$35,600,000 |
$26,600,000 |
1/16/2026 |
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Extended Edition Re-Release Weekend #1) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
||||
1/23/2026 |
Return to Silent Hill |
Iconic Events |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,750,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
|
1/23/2026 |
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Extended Edition Re-Release Weekend #2) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$1,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
||||
1/23/2026 |
Mercy |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
|
1/30/2026 |
Iron Lung |
Markiplier Studios |
$9,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$13,500,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
|
1/30/2026 |
Send Help |
Disney |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
|
1/30/2026 |
Shelter |
Black Bear |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$11,500,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
|
1/30/2026 |
The Moment |
A24 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
|
2/6/2026 |
Cold Storage |
Samuel Goldwyn Films |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
|
2/6/2026 |
Solo Mio |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
|
2/6/2026 |
The Strangers: Chapter 3 |
Lionsgate |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
|
2/6/2026 |
Whistle |
IFC Films |
$1,500,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,750,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
|
2/13/2026 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$13,900,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
GOAT |
Sony Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$20,400,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$92,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$3,500,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$13,800,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$50,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$141,000,000 |
$114,000,000 |
2/20/2026 |
How to Make a Killing |
A24 |
$2,500,000 |
||||||
2/20/2026 |
I Can Only Imagine 2 |
Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 |
||||||
2/20/2026 |
Pillion (Wide Expansion) |
A24 |
|||||||
2/20/2026 |
Psycho Killer |
Disney |
$3,000,000 |
||||||
2/27/2026 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount Pictures |
$28,000,000 |
||||||
3/6/2026 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
||||||
3/6/2026 |
Hoppers |
Disney |
$18,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.