The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Breadwinner (March 13)
- Traditional comedies have had a rough go at the box office in recent years, with only occasional exceptions. That said, Nate Bargatze is riding a wave of historic popularity following his record-breaking stand-up comedy tours, streaming specials, and viral skits from multiple Saturday Night Live and award hosting appearances. With a widespread fan base and significant family appeal, file this one under the “massive sleeper” category as a potential box office breakout to watch for — particularly among middle America moviegoers with some crossover appeal among faith- and values-based audiences.
- Reminders of Him (March 13)
- The latest adaptation of a Colleen Hoover novel should bring out her loyal fans, but this one is modeling slightly more conservatively than Regretting You which had notable star power behind it.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/22/26
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
1/23/2026 |
Return to Silent Hill |
Iconic Events |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,750,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
1/23/2026 |
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Extended Edition Re-Release Weekend #2) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$3,500,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$4,500,000 |
|||
1/23/2026 |
Mercy |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
1/30/2026 |
Iron Lung |
Markiplier Studios |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
1/30/2026 |
Send Help |
Disney |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
1/30/2026 |
Shelter |
Black Bear |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$11,500,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$15,400,000 |
1/30/2026 |
The Moment |
A24 |
$1,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
2/6/2026 |
Cold Storage |
Samuel Goldwyn Films |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
2/6/2026 |
Solo Mio |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
2/6/2026 |
The Strangers: Chapter 3 |
Lionsgate |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
2/6/2026 |
Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience |
Bleecker Street |
$2,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
2/6/2026 |
Whistle |
IFC Films |
$1,500,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,750,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
GOAT |
Sony Pictures |
$14,500,000 |
$20,500,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$3,500,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$13,800,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$45,000,000 |
$63,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
$108,000,000 |
2/20/2026 |
How to Make a Killing |
A24 |
$2,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
2/20/2026 |
I Can Only Imagine 2 |
Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
2/20/2026 |
Psycho Killer |
Disney |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
2/27/2026 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount Pictures |
$28,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
3/6/2026 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
||||
3/6/2026 |
Hoppers |
Disney |
$18,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
||||
3/13/2026 |
The Breadwinner |
Sony Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
||||
3/13/2026 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.