This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Reminders of Him
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 13 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $10 — 15 million+
Undertone
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 — 11 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $7 million+
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Fresh off Pixar’s best debut for an original animated film in nearly nine years, and with no new competition in immediate sight, Hoppers is riding strong reception (94 percent from audiences and 92 percent from critics on Rotten Tomatoes) toward what should be a sturdy first chase weekend atop the box office again. More than 20 percent of K-12 schools will be out Friday and next Monday, adding to the film’s advantages going forward.
- Universal’s Reminders of Him is leaning on fans of Colleen Hoover and her source material with the latest film to adapt the author’s work, following in the footsteps of It Ends With Us and Regretting You. Core demographics lean heavily on women in multiple age brackets.
- With this Friday being the 13th day of the month, A24 has cleverly timed the release of Undertone to leverage the sort-of-holiday for horror aficionados with their buzzy, atmospheric horror entry. The pic currently boasts an 85 percent fresh score from critics and is pacing close to films such as Heretic and Bring Her Back in pre-sale modeling.
- In specialty releases:
- GKIDS is celebrating the 4K edition of Hayao Miyazaki’s Kiki’s Delivery Service following last spring’s similar treatment of Princess Mononoke.
- Bleecker Street’s Slanted will bow in limited release and could be a dark horse candidate to challenge for a spot in the top ten if it overperforms.
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II: The Secret of the Ooze gets the 35th anniversary treatment from Fathom, ala last year’s re-release of the original 1990 Turtles blockbuster.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $69 million+. That would be 53 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($45.5 million, led by Novocaine‘s $8.8 million debut) and 45 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($126.4 million, led by Captain Marvel‘s $68 million sophomore frame).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 15 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$27,700,000 |
-39% |
$89,300,000 |
~4,000 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal |
$11,100,000 |
NEW |
$11,100,000 |
~3,400 |
Undertone |
A24 |
$8,800,000 |
NEW |
$8,800,000 |
~2,500 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount |
$8,600,000 |
-49% |
$106,800,000 |
~3,200 |
GOAT |
Sony |
$4,800,000 |
-26% |
$91,400,000 |
~2,700 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. |
$2,400,000 |
-66% |
$11,700,000 |
~3,304 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. |
$2,000,000 |
-46% |
$82,400,000 |
~2,100 |
Kiki’s Delivery Service (4K Re-Release) |
GKIDS |
$1,900,000 |
NEW |
$1,900,000 |
~200 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM |
$1,300,000 |
-36% |
$35,700,000 |
~1,700 |
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II: The Secret of the Ooze (35th Anniversary) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$1,000,000 |
NEW |
$1,000,000 |
~1,300 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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