The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Project Hail Mary Update:
- With $12 million from all-in previews domestically, Amazon MGM remains on course for their biggest opening weekend in studio history (topping Creed III‘s $58.4 million).
- That preview sum includes an estimated $8.5 million from true Thursday, plus another estimated $3.0 million from Monday’s Prime Early Access shows and $500K from last weekend’s 70mm and IMAX sneaks.
- Projections remain debatable with so many estimated variables in those previews. For context, Dune: Part Two went on to an $82.5 million opening weekend off $10 million in Thursday previews (plus another $2.0 million from IMAX sneaks the week before). Avatar: Fire and Ash drew an $89.2 million frame off $12 million in previews (all Thursday).
- The floor would appear to be around $65 — 70 million for PHM, but per earlier projections, word of mouth and this higher-than-expected Thursday result may drive that total higher into the $76 — 82 million range.
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 (May 1 / Disney & 20th Century Studios)
- May is set to kick off in a notable way with a decades-in-the-making sequel featuring the return of the original cast, writer, and director of the 2006 modern classic, adapted from Lauren Weisberger’s original book.
- Early tracking factors center heavily around excitement for the return of Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci. Core demographics are women, predominately those in the age 35+ bracket.
- Pre-sales began recently and have lived up to our bullish expectations in long range forecasts. Early trends, social awareness, and trailer footprints are among the best of the year and ahead of recent female-driven tentpoles such as Wuthering Heights, The Housemaid, and It Ends With Us.
- Some front-loading could be expected, but the sequel arrives as a breath of fresh air to kick off the summer season with a film catered to an often under-served audience. With Mother’s Day in its second frame and minimal competition during early summer, we expect a healthy runway for what should become a breakout sequel.
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (April 1 / Universal)
- In the wake of Hoppers beating industry expectations, we’re re-modeling forecasts slightly to give Mario Galaxy a minor bump as the market for kid-driven, family films appears to be in a healthy state here in early 2026. Pre-sales across samples from the top exhibitors overall remain slightly behind the previous 2023 film at the same point before release, but higher average ticket prices and excitement surrounding the introduction of Yoshi remain drivers in box office potential among parents and adults.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/19/26
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
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Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
5-Day (WTFSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
3/19/2026 |
Dhurandhar: The Revenge |
Moviegoers Entertainment |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$8,200,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$20,500,000 |
3/20/2026 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$65,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$76,000,000 |
$183,000,000 |
$282,000,000 |
$235,000,000 |
|
3/20/2026 |
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come |
Disney |
$8,500,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$31,100,000 |
$25,200,000 |
|
3/27/2026 |
Forbidden Fruits |
IFC Films |
$500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
|
3/27/2026 |
The Mummy Returns (25th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$750,000 |
$3,300,000 |
$2,000,000 |
|
3/27/2026 |
They Will Kill You |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
|
4/1/2026 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal Pictures |
$95,000,000 |
$129,000,000 |
$114,600,000 |
$160,500,000 |
$355,000,000 |
$485,000,000 |
$430,000,000 |
4/3/2026 |
The Drama |
A24 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$22,700,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
|
4/10/2026 |
You, Me & Tuscany |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
|
4/17/2026 |
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
|
4/24/2026 |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
|||||||
4/24/2026 |
Over Your Dead Body |
IFC Films |
|||||||
5/1/2026 |
Animal Farm |
Angel Studios |
|||||||
5/1/2026 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.