The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (April 1 / Universal)
- Pre-sales are still pointing to a strong debut over the long Good Friday and Easter frame next week, likely among the top four in history for the holiday. While pacing remains well behind the 2023 blockbuster, the three-day weekend is trending for a potential $121 million haul (which would translate to around $170 million from Wednesday onward).
- Michael (April 24 / Lionsgate)
- We remain generally optimistic for the biopic’s theatrical launch one month from this weekend. Early access sales have been robust, while the first day of general shows performed in line with expectations across our exhibitor samples while behind the likes of The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Wicked. It’s very possible sales surge closer to release, but for now, ranges remain steady until we get a better sense of pacing to determine if adjustments are warranted.
- Mortal Kombat II (May 8 / Warner Bros.)
- Multiple outlets reported a record number of views for the red-band trailer following its online launch last July. While peaking too early in marketing can sometimes be detrimental to striking while the iron is hot (the film was notably delayed from an October release), trends for more recently released previews have continued to build on the momentum and enthusiasm among fans of the video game franchise.
- Key drivers in social chatter hinge around the scale of action and true-to-the-games spirit. Specifically, fans are eager to see Karl Urban’s rendition of Johnny Cage join the modern live-action movie franchise. The actor’s popularity across multiple fandoms (The Boys, Star Trek, The Lord of the Rings, et al) certainly doesn’t hurt.
- The film will score an IMAX release at launch and is likely to share showtimes in that and other premium formats until Memorial Day weekend (MKII‘s third frame).
- Competition will be light as this male-driven film will counter-balance the second weekend of The Devil Wears Prada 2 and third of Michael. Fellow openers Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour and The Sheep Detectives will similarly court different crowds.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/26/26
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Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
4/1/2026 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal Pictures |
$101,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
$121,000,000 ($170,000,000 Wed-Sun) |
$377,000,000 |
$485,000,000 |
$455,000,000 |
4/3/2026 |
The Drama |
A24 |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$20,500,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$33,000,000 |
4/10/2026 |
You, Me & Tuscany |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$43,300,000 |
4/17/2026 |
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
4/24/2026 |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$52,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$135,000,000 |
$271,000,000 |
$175,000,000 |
4/24/2026 |
Over Your Dead Body |
IFC Films |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
5/1/2026 |
Animal Farm |
Angel Studios |
$6,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|||
5/1/2026 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney |
$55,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
|||
5/1/2026 |
Hokum |
Neon |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|||
5/1/2026 |
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea |
Sony Pictures |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
|||
5/7/2026 |
Iron Maiden: Burning Ambition |
Trafalgar Releasing |
||||||
5/8/2026 |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$40,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.