The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
- Following our final forecast earlier in the week, everything remains on course for a domestic performance at the highest end of industry expectations. With $59.1 million in the bank after two days, Galaxy is pacing 1 percent ahead of its 2023 predecessor through the same point after an opening day that was 9 percent ahead ($34.5 million versus $31.7 million).
- Factoring in expected frontloaded trends and markedly higher average ticket prices from three years ago, Galaxy is on course for the biggest five-day domestic opening since Moana 2 ($225.4 million) with an expected $180-190 million-plus start.
- Elsewhere, trends are fairly unchanged since last week’s report.
- Michael still looks like a standout later this month, albeit with pre-sale pacing behind the likes of Wicked and other recent musical-heavy films. Late-stage momentum remains speculative but that plus walk-up sales could yet drive forecasts a little higher once more data supports it.
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 remains among the best pre-sellers of the year so far with the universe of tracking metrics, demographic interest, and trailer footprints well ahead of comps like The Housemaid and Freakier Friday. We anticipate a high quotient of the advance buying audience to be in play here, but trends a month out from release remain impressive nonetheless.
- Following last week’s early outlook on Mortal Kombat II, the video game sequel will have two weeks to focus on its male-centric audience before The Mandalorian & Grogu opens Memorial Day weekend. We’ll offer up early forecasts for that title soon, as well as those for May 15 openers In the Grey, Is God Is, Obsession, and the 40th anniversary re-release of Top Gun.
- Preliminary forecasts are also now available for The Sheep Detectives, as well as Billie Eilish and James Cameron’s Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D).
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/2/26
NOTE: Beginning soon, all forecast charts will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
4/10/2026 |
You, Me & Tuscany |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$43,300,000 |
4/17/2026 |
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
4/24/2026 |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$52,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$135,000,000 |
$271,000,000 |
$175,000,000 |
4/24/2026 |
Over Your Dead Body |
IFC Films |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
5/1/2026 |
Animal Farm |
Angel Studios |
$6,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
5/1/2026 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney |
$55,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
$226,000,000 |
$219,000,000 |
5/1/2026 |
Hokum |
Neon |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
5/1/2026 |
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea |
Sony Pictures |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
5/7/2026 |
Iron Maiden: Burning Ambition |
Trafalgar Releasing |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
5/8/2026 |
Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) |
Paramount Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
|||
5/8/2026 |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$40,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
|||
5/8/2026 |
The Sheep Detectives |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.