Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH ($116-135M 5-Day), Plus Significant Updates on KARATE KID: LEGENDS and BALLERINA

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Jurassic World Rebirth is positioned as this year’s marquee Fourth of July tentpole in theaters. Scarlett Johansson’s takeover in the leading role, alongside an entirely new cast, comes with a mixed bag of expectations as this will essentially serve as a soft reboot of the franchise.
  • Opening midweek around July 4 will skew comparisons to many films as Independence Day comps are notoriously varied year-to-year. Of note, sometimes this is reported as a 3-, 4-, or 5-day weekend in many cases. Technically speaking, the 5-day stretch (Wednesday through Sunday this year) could be enough to claim a holiday record, if Universal chooses to report it that way, over 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru — with the caveat that the latter film’s $123.1 million was earned in four days (Friday through Monday, July 4).
  • Reception toward the previous two Jurassic films wasn’t as strong as 2015’s initial revival, with 2023’s Dominion notably dividing fans and critics. Oversaturation of the brand will likely translate to diminishing returns from recent sequels in the series, as will the absence of IMAX showings (F1 has those locked up). Still, premium screens of other varieties will be a driver, and the Jurassic films are known to be very casual audience-friendly. International potential will be robust as well.
  • The variable will be word of mouth, which could help the film’s legs if fans feel it returns to the franchise’s roots as promised. Still, coming nine days before Superman and just over two weeks before Fantastic Four: First Steps, it will need to stand out with moviegoers and find its traditional summer staying power.
  • Pre-sales have only just begun and will not be a major factor in updated tracking for at least another week or two as the franchise is typically backloaded in that regard.
• With the hurricane of business Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning are about to stir up over Memorial Day weekend, tracking models for most upcoming films are mostly unchanged this weekend.
  • The exceptions:
    • Karate Kid: Legends continues to stall in pre-sales and late-stage tracking. While some potential for family-driven and walk-up business still anchor high-end expectations, alongside the brand’s awareness and ties to a popular Netflix series, concerns that the film is sandwiched between Stitch and June 14’s How to Train Your Dragon have been exacerbated by recent signals pointing to a lighter box office haul than once forecasted.
    • Ballerina forecasting become more volatile this week as social media reviews were expected to be allowed following the film’s industry premiere on May 22. However, studio wording regarding that embargo left many online outlets and influencers — and, by extension, readers and cinephiles — more cautious about the eventual reception of the film among broader audiences. The official review embargo won’t lift until the day before nationwide previews begin, so we’re leaning more conservative in box office expectations for the time being.

6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/22/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in the Box Office Theory newsletter on Substack)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.