The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Scream 7 kicked off pre-sales this week in a big way with preliminary trends far outpacing the previous best start in the franchise, 2023’s Scream VI. That film bowed to a series-best $44.5 million domestically. As of this writing, sources report nationwide exhibitor pre-sales are close to $2 million-plus already in the bank for S7.
- We previously baked in mixed online sentiment toward the firing of the recent two films’ star, Melissa Barrera, and subsequent departure of Jenna Ortega and the film’s directors as part of cautious long-range forecasts for the seventh installment. However, these (very early) sales point to an opposing intrigue from nostalgic fans looking forward to the return of Neve Campbell’s Sydney Prescott and other legacy characters (some once presumed to no longer be alive in the story) as well as writer/director Kevin Williamson’s return to the franchise.
- With strong exposure from the Super Bowl ad tied into Scream 7‘s on-sale start, plus a franchise-first IMAX release, it remains to be seen how momentum paces over the next two weeks. This installment also boasts a shorter sales window than the prior entry, but for now, there are enough signals pointing to a probable $30 million-plus debut with spiking potential to approach or exceed the previous film’s debut. Consider these volatile targets until closer to release, though.
- With pre-sales beginning today for Project Hail Mary‘s early access shows, to be followed by Amazon Prime early access and general showtimes at a later date, we’re keeping an eye on how the film’s models evolve following recent bullish forecasts as one of the key early spring releases.
- On the current weekend front, Wuthering Heights lived up to expectations with a $3 million Thursday night debut heading into a long double-holiday frame. For that film specifically, Saturday (Valentine’s Day) is pivotal toward performance and is naturally skewing comparisons to any other release.
- Amazon’s Crime 101 and Sony’s GOAT delivered $1.01 million (yes, for real) and $1 million, respectively, from all previews including early access shows.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/12/26
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
2/13/2026 |
Cold Storage |
Samuel Goldwyn Films |
$1,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,400,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$6,800,000 |
$3,100,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,600,000 |
$14,500,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$32,600,000 |
2/13/2026 |
GOAT |
Sony Pictures |
$14,500,000 |
$20,500,000 |
$16,300,000 |
$20,300,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$59,100,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,900,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$16,700,000 |
$12,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$45,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$48,800,000 |
$53,200,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$114,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
2/20/2026 |
EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (IMAX Engagement) |
Universal Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
||||
2/20/2026 |
How to Make a Killing |
A24 |
|||||||
2/20/2026 |
I Can Only Imagine 2 |
Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
|
2/25/2026 |
Twenty One Pilots: More Than We Ever Imagined |
Trafalgar Releasing |
$2,100,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,700,000 |
|||
2/27/2026 |
EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (Wide Release) |
Universal Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
|
2/27/2026 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount Pictures |
$40,000,000 |
$53,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$121,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
|
3/6/2026 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$37,500,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
|
3/6/2026 |
Hoppers |
Disney |
$21,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$119,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
|
3/13/2026 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
|
3/13/2026 |
Undertone |
A24 |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
|
3/20/2026 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$42,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$42,500,000 |
$140,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
|
3/20/2026 |
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come |
Disney |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
|
3/27/2026 |
They Will Kill You |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.