This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
28 Years Later
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $26 – 34 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$28 million
Elio
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $18 – 24 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$25 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Both openers this weekend appear to have over-tracked in long range models, although Thursday’s Juneteenth certainly complicates projections.
- In the case of 28 Years Later, key comps have shifted from the likes of Alien: Romulus and A Quiet Place: Day One to Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Longlegs.
- Marketing hasn’t made as deep of a connection as we once expected for the anticipated horror sequel, which at one point set genre records with its trailer release late last year, likely contributing to a stalled pace of pre-sales in our exhibition samples.
- The late critics’ embargo lift (scheduled for late Wednesday this week) has also stifled potential for a late-stage pre-sale boost ahead of Thursday’s “previews”, which begin at 12pm for the holiday.
- That said, while this may not play as mainstream-friendly as other elevated horror franchise sequels, horror does generally benefit from healthy walk-up business, those aforementioned reviews are expected to lean mostly positive, and the film’s modest budget will still keep it in successful territory.
- As for Pixar’s Elio, it’s also fading in late-stage models.
- Despite already cautious forecasts in recent weeks and a positive response from critics (84 percent fresh from 56 Rotten Tomatoes entries), the latest original animation is trending closer to The Garfield Movie and Strange World metrics than the likes of The Wild Robot or Pixar’s own Elemental.
- Some (if not most) of the reasoning there is the film’s proximity to How to Train Your Dragon, which set a new franchise record opening last weekend with the live-action remake’s $84.6 million bow and is drawing strong audience reception. Even though original animation has proven to see a slower box office rebound over the last few years, timing (from an opening perspective) is working against Elio and putting added emphasis on its potential staying power through summer without any uber-blockbuster-tier animated tentpoles on the horizon.
- Again, the holiday throws off all one-to-one comps but walk-up business is expected to be a relative strength, particularly among Hispanic and Latino communities.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 16 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($148.3 million), led by the second frame of Inside Out 2 ($101.2 million), and 35 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($189.9 million), led by Toy Story 4‘s $120.9 million debut.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 22 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal |
$38,800,000 |
-54% |
$150,100,000 |
~4,356 |
28 Years Later |
Sony |
$30,000,000 |
NEW |
$30,000,000 |
~3,300 |
Elio |
Disney / Pixar |
$20,400,000 |
NEW |
$20,400,000 |
~3,750 |
Lilo & Stitch (2025) |
Disney |
$12,500,000 |
-20% |
$387,300,000 |
~3,400 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount |
$6,400,000 |
-39% |
$176,500,000 |
~2,300 |
Materialists |
A24 |
$5,300,000 |
-56% |
$21,100,000 |
~2,844 |
Ballerina |
Lionsgate |
$3,900,000 |
-60% |
$49,000,000 |
~2,600 |
Karate Kid: Legends |
Sony |
$3,300,000 |
-37% |
$49,800,000 |
~2,400 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. |
$1,700,000 |
-58% |
$133,700,000 |
~1,300 |
The Phoenician Scheme |
Focus Features |
$1,700,000 |
-47% |
$15,800,000 |
~1,100 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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