The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Minions & Monsters (Universal & Illumination)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $68 — 87 million (5-Day)
Studio Tracking: $95 million (5-day)
Young Washington (Angel Studios)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $23 million+
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- This will be an especially unique weekend for a lot of reasons. Chief among them is July 4 on Saturday, a calendar alignment that hasn’t occurred with a normally functioning box office in 11 years.
- 2026’s Independence Day moviegoing is even more volatile to forecast with countless America 250 celebrations taking place around the country, many of which could take place across multiple days.
- The holiday typically wreaks havoc on box office projections during most years as family schedules are dependent upon observed work holidays and weekend structuring.
- In addition to the special nature of this July 4th, World Cup matches and a record-breaking heat dome settling over significant parts of the country could also play a role in theatrical foot traffic, for better and worse.
- As for the movies themselves, Minions & Monsters will court family fans just two weeks after Toy Story 5 stormed into theaters with the biggest opening of 2026 so far. The Universal and Illumination franchise has seen remarkably consistent returns in its 16-year history, though with a third film opening in the last four years, demand may not be comparable to previous event-level installments within the series.
- Despite pre-release signals indicating observable diminished returns on the domestic side, an 89 percent fresh score from Rotten Tomatoes critics (as of Wednesday morning) and the potential for strong walk-up business over the long weekend could still help it top current expectations.
- Angel Studios made its biggest mark on the box office three years ago this weekend with Sound of Freedom, followed by last year’s The King of Kings and David finding similar commercial success on opening weekend. This year, Young Washington is hoping to join that short list of top-tier Angel releases and potentially exceed $20 million domestically on opening weekend in the process.
- The company has made a significant push with its guild members to help make the film #1 at the box office on Saturday, July 4. Combined with encouraging pre-sale metrics in measured samples and reported by multiple sources, there’s an increasing (if cautious) optimism it could happen.
- The counterpoint of that goal is that family films typically see business decline sharply on July 4th, giving Washington an even stronger leg up. Critics are also mostly positive on the film with a 71 percent fresh score.
Weekend Forecast
(view the complete analysis and top 5 forecast in our Substack newsletter)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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