This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
December is poised for a rare strong start as Universal delivers a major fan-driven release on the post-Thanksgiving frame.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $44 — 55 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $35 — 40 million
JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $5.5 — 9 million
Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 4 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is well behind its 2023 predecessor in all tracking models and pre-sale comps, but that was always expected as pent-up demand for the first big screen adaptation would be challenging to replicate. FNAF2 remains well ahead of most horror releases from 2025 at the same point, though it remains to be seen how much walk-up business can be generated by the sequel without being knee-capped by a simultaneous streaming release ala the previous film. The video game fan base will naturally create a strong front-loaded aspect.
- Zootopia 2 will very much be in the fight for first place as strong reception (92 percent from critics and 96 percent from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes) drives its chase weekends into the long holiday corridor.
- Though not as much of a word-of-mouth monster as its own predecessor, Wicked: For Good should also remain a strong presence in the top three this weekend.
- On the specialty release front:
- GKIDS will unfurl JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution with appeal strongest among anime fans. It’s worth considering crossover competition with FNAF2‘s male-driven video game crowd.
- Quentin Tarantino’s Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair will bring out the auteur filmmaker’ die-hard fans for the first-ever theatrical presentation of the two modern classics presented in whole form.
- Hamnet will begin its staggered expansion after a healthy debut over the holiday as the budding award season candidate looks to reach over 700 locations this weekend.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $140.9 million. That would be 9 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($129.6 million, led by Moana 2‘s $51.3 million sophomore frame and Wicked‘s $36.5 million third) and 77 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($79.7 million, led by Frozen II‘s $35.2 million third frame).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 7 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
Universal |
$48,100,000 |
NEW |
$48,100,000 |
~3,300 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$46,000,000 |
-54% |
$221,900,000 |
~4,000 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal |
$25,000,000 |
-60% |
$309,700,000 |
~4,100 |
JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution |
GKIDS |
$8,300,000 |
NEW |
$8,300,000 |
~1,200 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$3,700,000 |
-46% |
$54,800,000 |
~2,800 |
Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair |
Lionsgate |
$2,300,000 |
NEW |
$2,300,000 |
~1,150 |
Predator: Badlands |
20th Century Studios |
$2,300,000 |
-52% |
$88,600,000 |
~2,500 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount |
$1,800,000 |
-52% |
$37,100,000 |
~2,200 |
Eternity |
A24 |
$1,700,000 |
-46% |
$8,500,000 |
~1,400 |
Hamnet |
Focus Features |
$1,700,000 |
84% |
$3,500,000 |
~750 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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