This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
How to Train Your Dragon (2025)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $70 – 80 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $65 million+
Materialists
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $11 – 16 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $6 million+
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Dragon has remained fairly consistent in pre-release tracking since our initial public projection of $65 million-plus, gaining some upside with strong early access sales (screening Wednesday night and assumed to end up included with the weekend gross). Those, combined with Thursday previews, could tally close to $10 million, give or take a bit.
- Not dissimilar from Lilo & Stitch, tracking is best among women, particularly millennials and parents who grew up with the original animated trilogy and will look to introduce this live-action iteration to their young families.
- On top of the usual premium screen and IMAX boost, a Father’s Day weekend opening could spur positive interest from dads and sons on Sunday.
- Pre-sales for the weekend in our exhibition samples are out-pacing a fellow DreamWorks title (Kung Fu Panda 4), while coming in significantly ahead of Mufasa.
- Reviews are healthy with a 78 percent Certified Fresh rating from 106 Rotten Tomatoes critics.
- Materialists is courting a decidedly different crowd: cinephiles, date night audiences, and young adults, scattering across the age brackets of Gen Z and millennials where the studio’s arthouse-turned-commercial successes usually shine at the box office.
- A strong ensemble cast will be a major part of the draw, likely dominated by Pedro Pascal fandom, as will interest in Celine Song’s follow-up to the Oscar-nominated Past Lives.
- Pre-sale samples are comparable to those of Challengers and No Hard Feelings.
- Reviews are also very positive at 86 percent fresh from 58 submissions.
- On the holdover front, look for male-driven titles such as Ballerina, Mission: Impossible, Karate Kid: Legends, and others to score strong Sundays, though some of these titles will see sharp weekend-to-weekend drops due to loss of screens and/our premium formats.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 35 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($211.1 million), led by Inside Out 2‘s monster $154.2 million opening, and 11 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($123.6 million), led by Men In Black International‘s $30 million start. Both of those frames were comparable Father’s Day weekends.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 15 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal |
$73,000,000 |
NEW |
$73,000,000 |
~4,000+ |
Lilo & Stitch (2025) |
Disney |
$14,100,000 |
-56% |
$364,500,000 |
~3,600 |
Materialists |
A24 |
$13,200,000 |
NEW |
$13,200,000 |
~3,000+ |
Ballerina |
Lionsgate |
$11,700,000 |
-52% |
$44,100,000 |
~3,409 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount |
$9,300,000 |
-37% |
$165,600,000 |
~2,900 |
Karate Kid: Legends |
Sony |
$5,100,000 |
-40% |
$44,300,000 |
~3,400 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. |
$4,000,000 |
-38% |
$130,900,000 |
~2,300 |
The Phoenician Scheme |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
-52% |
$12,800,000 |
~1,800 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. |
$2,000,000 |
-29% |
$276,100,000 |
~1,200 |
Bring Her Back |
A24 |
$1,800,000 |
-49% |
$18,000,000 |
~1,700 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.