This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Karate Kid: Legends
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $14 – 21 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $25 – 30 million
Bring Her Back
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 – 11 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $5 – 7 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Following the biggest Memorial Day box office weekend in cinema history, Lilo & Stitch will reign again as it hopes to turn strong reception into shades of the kind of staying power 2019’s Aladdin enjoyed following its own holiday launch. With minimal competition arriving until mid-June’s How to Train Your Dragon, it has a fair shot at doing just that.
- Similarly, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning will retain its powerhouse IMAX presence and aim to build on its series-best debut last week with positive reception in play once again for the Tom Cruise franchise.
- Unfortunately, Karate Kid: Legends is falling well short of previous forecasts that modeled it out as a potential summer sleeper.
- Being caught in between the male-driven Mission and family-dominated Stitch remake is looking to be a one-two punch for the legacy IP sequel despite spillover awareness from renewed interest in the franchise via the popular Cobra Kai streaming series. Exhibitor sample pre-sales have lagged far behind those of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, IF, and Red One. Reviews are also coming in mixed with a 58 percent fresh Rotten Tomatoes score as of Wednesday evening.
- A24’s Bring Her Back, meanwhile, has the support of the studio’s followers and those of the directors who helmed Talk to Me, a late summer hit in 2023. A 90 percent fresh score is encouraging, though competition with Final Destination: Bloodlines‘ third frame may be a factor to consider among the horror base.
- In platform release at 6 locations, Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme has a fair shot at approaching the top ten chart this weekend with close to $1 million, give or take.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 148 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($60.3 million, led by The Garfield Movie‘s $14 million second frame) and 11 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($167.6 million, led by Godzilla: King of the Monsters‘ $47.8 million debut).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 1 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Lilo & Stitch (2025) |
Disney |
$68,500,000 |
-53% |
$289,600,000 |
~4,410 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount |
$27,600,000 |
-57% |
$123,200,000 |
~3,857 |
Karate Kid: Legends |
Sony |
$16,000,000 |
NEW |
$16,000,000 |
~3,600 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. |
$11,200,000 |
-42% |
$112,300,000 |
~3,000 |
Bring Her Back |
A24 |
$8,800,000 |
NEW |
$8,800,000 |
~2,000 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. |
$6,000,000 |
-30% |
$267,900,000 |
~1,900 |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel |
$5,400,000 |
-44% |
$182,600,000 |
~2,900 |
Friendship |
A24 |
$2,400,000 |
-48% |
$12,300,000 |
~1,055 |
The Last Rodeo |
Angel |
$2,300,000 |
-58% |
$10,700,000 |
~2,205 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. |
$1,400,000 |
-36% |
$423,800,000 |
~1,600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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