This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Last week’s purported Avatar-topper didn’t quite pan out up to expectations, but now Amazon MGM’s first major release of the year will take its shot.
Mercy
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 13 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $13 million+
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Fathom Re-Issue)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3.5 — 6.5 million
Return to Silent Hill
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1 — 3 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Mercy aims to leverage the appeal of Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson with a Minority Report-style, high-concept, sci-fi crime thriller. Early reviews aren’t the hottest (30 percent fresh from 23 Rotten Tomatoes critics), but the film isn’t necessarily geared toward them. Pre-sale samples are tracking slightly ahead of Flight Risk on this same weekend last year. IMAX and 3D screenings will also play a role.
- Following a stellar $8.2 million weekend, Fathom’s three-film re-release of the extended editions of the Lord of the Rings trilogy — The Fellowship of the Ring, The Two Towers, and The Return of the King — continues to trend well in fan pre-sales for its second of two planned weekends in release. Fellowship is in the early months of its 25th anniversary year.
- Video game and genre fans could turn out for Return to Silent Hill, but limited marketing reach will likely keep it from the adapted franchise’s past box office heights.
- External of the movies themselves, two key elements may depress moviegoing over January’s penultimate frame: continued NFL playoffs and a major winter storm set to potentially impact more than 35 states throughout the Friday-Sunday period (and beyond).
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $51 million+. That would be 3 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($53 million, led by Flight Risk‘s $11.6 million debut) and 30 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($73.8 million, led by the $18.9 million second frame of Glass).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 25 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Mercy |
Amazon MGM |
$12,800,000 |
NEW |
$12,800,000 |
~3,400 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$7,700,000 |
-47% |
$378,800,000 |
~3,000 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$6,500,000 |
-24% |
$117,900,000 |
~2,900 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$5,700,000 |
-38% |
$401,400,000 |
~2,900 |
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
Sony |
$4,500,000 |
-64% |
$21,100,000 |
~3,506 |
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Re-Release Weekend #2) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$4,500,000 |
-45% |
$12,700,000 |
~1,600 |
Marty Supreme |
A24 |
$4,100,000 |
-25% |
$87,200,000 |
~1,700 |
Primate |
Paramount |
$2,600,000 |
-48% |
$24,400,000 |
~2,500 |
Anaconda |
Sony |
$1,700,000 |
-49% |
$62,500,000 |
~1,900 |
Return to Silent Hill |
Iconic Events |
$1,500,000 |
NEW |
$1,500,000 |
~1,700 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.