Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS to Repeat, Could Net #2 All-Time Horror Sophomore Weekend ($38-40M+); STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH ($20M+) and THE ACCOUNTANT 2 ($18M+) Continue Tracking Well

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Sinners lived up to the hype (and a little bit extra) on opening weekend, but the story is far from over as it looks to rival more records in its second weekend when the market overall looks healthy with a variety of openers and holdovers heading into the final stages of spring movie season.

With that in mind, modeling for this weekend is among the most challenging of any frame in a long time with the potential for three or four films to top $20 million and Sinners‘ own trajectory forging its own path.

Sinners (Weekend #2)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $38 – 43 million

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$20 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $20 – 25 million

The Accountant 2
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$20 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $18 – 24 million

Until Dawn
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$8 – 9 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 – 10 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Sinners has impressed with initial daily holds through Tuesday despite any expectation of the Easter holiday inflating numbers at any point so far. Resounding demand for IMAX is driving a big part of the spillover effect, as is the natural adult-driven aspect that plays into weekday business. That being said, comparison models are few and between at this stage as pre-sales for the first chase weekend are outside normal bounds. The film will lose a small portion of its PLF footprint to The Accountant 2, but otherwise, IMAX and walk-up demand should help drive what’s trending to become the best sophomore weekend for a horror genre film since It ($60.1 million) and It: Chapter Two ($39.6 million).
• Despite initially looking like it would make a run for first place this weekend, Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith‘s 20th anniversary is still shaping up as one of the best re-release performers in over a decade. Pre-sales will hit a natural ceiling as the fan base is known to among the most front-loaded of any franchise and screen space is at a literal and figurative premium, but Sith is leaps and bounds ahead of The Phantom Menace‘s 25th anniversary at the same point last year.
• A Minecraft Movie should rebound somewhat after losing more premium screens last week, although some of its demographic might crossover with Sith‘s younger Millennials and Gen Zers as the meme-influence driving early box office may finally start leveling off.
• Until Dawn marks the latest horror offering in a year packed with them, with pre-sale and social trends comparing to Tarot and Abigail. The pre-existing video game fan base could help it still find a modest audience, but Sinners will undoubtedly pull away casual interest.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 139 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($56.4 million, led by the $15 million opening of Challengers) and 66 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($396.5 million, led by Avengers: Endgame‘s historic $357.1 million launch).