This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $86 — 109 million 4-day
Studio Tracking: $80 million 4-day
Passenger
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 13 million 4-day
Studio Tracking: $9 — 11 million 4-day
I Love Boosters
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $2.5 — 5 million 4-day
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Memorial Day weekend will look very different from last year when the industry set a new record for the holiday with over $264 million during the three-day weekend and $330.2 million across the four-day frame, led by the enormous combined success of Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
- Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu is this year’s marquee headliner among holiday openings. As noted in recent weeks, pre-sales have been expectedly fan-driven and premium format-heavy with a full footprint across IMAX, 3D, and other options.
- With that in mind, pre-sale momentum has hit the expected wall built into recent models. From here, most of the potential in mid-to-high box office ranges rests on the more casual and walk-up audience that is common with not only many Star Wars films of yore but also holidays and Memorial Day itself as summer vacations.
- Tracking is strongest among adult men (no surprise) while awareness is solid among all demographics thanks to Disney’s marketing reach.
- If the baked-in family audience doesn’t turn up, a performance closer to the low end of our range above will be far more likely as the long weekend progresses.
- Again, we’re giving some benefit of the doubt to family business and the “cuteness” factor anchored by Grogu (colloquially known as “Baby Yoda” and arguably among the franchise’s most beloved mascots). Our modeled pinpoint and high-end forecasts assume audience trends over the weekend behave similar to a Mario or Minions movie rather than a traditional PG-13 franchise action pic.
- As of Wednesday morning, the film owns a 60 percent fresh score from 120 Rotten Tomatoes critics.
- Meanwhile, as Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2 gear up for strong holdover business, Paramount will counter-program with Passenger as it hopes to become the latest niche horror breakout. NEON will also launch Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters, while Corporate Retreat bows from fledgling distributor Western Film Services.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $150 million+. That would be 43 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($262.7 million, an all-time record Memorial Day frame led by Lilo & Stitch‘s $146 million and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning‘s $64 million 3-day openings) and 13 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($173.1 million, led by Aladdin‘s $116.8 million 4-day bow).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Monday, May 25 |
Estimated Location Count (as of Tue) |
Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu |
Disney (Lucasfilm) |
$85,100,000 |
NEW |
$103,800,000 |
$103,800,000 |
4,300 |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$17,000,000 |
-35% |
$22,000,000 |
$314,400,000 |
2,700 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney (20th) |
$11,900,000 |
-33% |
$15,600,000 |
$198,400,000 |
3,400 |
Passenger |
Paramount |
$8,600,000 |
NEW |
$10,500,000 |
$10,500,000 |
2,500 |
Obsession |
Focus Features |
$7,600,000 |
-56% |
$9,500,000 |
$33,100,000 |
2,615 |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$6,100,000 |
-54% |
$7,800,000 |
$74,300,000 |
3,100 |
The Sheep Detectives |
Amazon MGM |
$6,100,000 |
-36% |
$8,100,000 |
$41,300,000 |
2,800 |
I Love Boosters |
Neon |
$3,000,000 |
NEW |
$3,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
2,000 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal |
$2,700,000 |
-40% |
$3,500,000 |
$423,900,000 |
2,400 |
Corporate Retreat |
Western Film Services |
$2,000,000 |
NEW |
$2,400,000 |
$2,400,000 |
1,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.