This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
It’s Super Bowl weekend, which means moviegoing will be light as holdovers shoulder the weight and studios avoid major releases and save them for the post-game holiday window next week.
Dracula (2026)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 6 million
Solo Mio
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 5.5 million
The Strangers: Chapter 3
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3.5 — 5.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Barring a surprise performance (always possible), Send Help and Iron Lung‘s sophomore frames should reign atop the box office again. The Sam Raimi and Mark Edward Fischbach (a.k.a. Markiplier) films over-performed against expectations last weekend in an intriguing battle of “big studio vs. indie” releases, made all the more intriguing given the parallels between Raimi’s own independent start to his career and what Markiplier’s success could mean for future digital content creators entering the theatrical space.
- Among openers, Luc Besson’s Dracula, Renny Harlin’s The Strangers: Chapter 3, and Angel Studios’ Solo Mio could be in a close battle for the #3 through #5 spots. We expect the former two to be somewhat frontloaded, while the Kevin James-led rom-com has possible backloading potential given Valentine’s coming up next weekend.
- As Super Bowl weekends at the box office go, this one hopes to avoid being the lowest grossing in over 36 years. That unfortunate title belongs to 2024 when overall box office topped out at $37 million — the lowest since 1990 ($37.2 million).
- 2025, 2023, and 2022 averaged around $53.5 million with near identical results each year. The (relative) best, of course, belongs to 2020 ($80.8 million) during a different moviegoing era and just weeks before the pandemic took hold.
- Since then, studios have shifted toward a seasonal-like release calendar for varying reasons in the new world of streaming and media consumption. The result has been the absence of major theatrical tentpoles and commercially-driven award season expansions in January.
- Prior to 2020, the 10-year (2010 – 2019) average Super Bowl frame at the box office was $95.8 million, down just 6 percent from the $101.6 million 10-year average (2000 – 2009) before.
- The current decade has struggled to hold par with 1990s era “Big Game” weekend performances when the 10-year (1990 – 1999) average Super Bowl frame at movie theaters was $55.3 million.
- None of the figures cited here were adjusted for inflation.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $40 million+. That would be 14 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($46.3 million, led by Dog Man‘s $13.8 million second frame) and 58 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($95 million, led by The LEGO Movie 2‘s $34.1 million debut).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 8 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Send Help |
Disney (20th) |
$7,800,000 |
-59% |
$34,200,000 |
~3,475 |
Iron Lung |
Centurion |
$5,000,000 |
-72% |
$28,200,000 |
~3,000 |
Dracula (2026) |
Vertical |
$4,500,000 |
NEW |
$4,500,000 |
~2,500 |
The Strangers: Chapter 3 |
Lionsgate |
$4,400,000 |
NEW |
$4,400,000 |
~2,400 |
Solo Mio |
Angel |
$4,000,000 |
NEW |
$4,000,000 |
~2,500 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$3,500,000 |
-38% |
$391,300,000 |
~2,600 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$3,400,000 |
-43% |
$413,800,000 |
~2,400 |
Melania |
Amazon MGM |
$3,300,000 |
-54% |
$13,300,000 |
~1,778 |
Mercy |
Amazon MGM |
$2,100,000 |
-54% |
$22,900,000 |
~3,000 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$2,000,000 |
-42% |
$123,800,000 |
~2,400 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.