This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
After a healthy double holiday weekend, major studios mostly take a back seat to the holdover frame of last week’s key openers — with the notable exception of two counter-programmers, one of which boasts some breakout potential.
The Monkey
NEON
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13 – 18 million
BOT Domestic Total Forecast Range: $36 – 56 million ($44 million pinpoint)
The Unbreakable Boy
Lionsgate
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $2 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2.5 – 5 million
BOT Domestic Total Forecast Range: $6.5 – 13 million ($9 million pinpoint)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Monkey is generating positive buzz among the horror community thanks to strong advance reviews (85 percent fresh from Rotten Tomatoes critics) and screening reception, not to mention goodwill for Osgood Perkins following his summer sleeper hit, Longlegs, last year.
- Monkey’s pre-sales in sample exhibitor markets are encouraging as the film outpaces all of 2025’s similar genre releases up to this point, though it will need to break away from that oversaturation to draw in more casual audiences after the influx of horror movies in recent times, a factor that has resulted in slightly less momentum in recent days than previously expected.
- Captain America: Brave New World will hope to rely more on its 80 percent Popcornmeter audience score than critics’ reactions at Rotten Tomatoes as the MCU sequel goes into its chase weekends following a $100 million four-day domestic bow that aligned with our forecasts leading up to release. It’s highly likely to repeat at #1 this weekend.
- Paddington in Peru should benefit from its own strong reception and brand awareness among families as it faces no real competition this weekend.
- The Unbreakable Boy‘s distribution reach was downgraded from a true wide release (2,000+ locations) to an estimated 1,300 last week. That estimate is up to 1,700 now, and while it could still benefit from grassroots marketing among values- and faith-based audiences, late-stage tracking and marketing have registered lightly and driven down what used to be more optimistic forecasts.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 42 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($51.3 million, led by the second frame of Bob Marley: One Love, plus debuts from Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training and Ordinary Angels) and 34 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($110.7 million, led by the debut of How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 23 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$28,500,000 |
-68% |
$141,200,000 |
~4,105 |
The Monkey |
NEON |
$14,300,000 |
NEW |
$14,300,000 |
~3,200 |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$7,400,000 |
-42% |
$25,500,000 |
~3,890 |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$6,100,000 |
-38% |
$78,600,000 |
~3,200 |
Ne Zha 2 |
CMC Pictures |
$3,900,000 |
-47% |
$14,100,000 |
~700 |
Heart Eyes |
Sony / Spyglass |
$3,500,000 |
-65% |
$27,300,000 |
~2,800 |
The Unbreakable Boy |
Lionsgate |
$3,400,000 |
NEW |
$3,400,000 |
~1,700 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$2,700,000 |
-36% |
$245,600,000 |
~2,100 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
$1,500,000 |
-50% |
$46,000,000 |
~1,200 |
Love Hurts |
Universal Pictures |
$1,400,000 |
-67% |
$14,800,000 |
~2,200 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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