The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Toy Story 5 (Disney & Pixar)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $158 — 180 million
Studio Tracking: $140 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- A double-holiday weekend is looking to be the perfect alignment for Disney and Pixar’s anticipated fifth entry in the Toy Story franchise. The high water mark for the franchise came seven years ago when Toy Story 4 bowed to $120 million domestically, on its way to a $434 million lifetime stateside haul.
- Juneteenth should fuel very strong business this Friday as many parents have the day off work, while Father’s Day on Sunday will also be a busy day for theater workers managing hordes of families. Pixar is no stranger to the latter having opened several major summer blockbusters on and around the mid-June holiday.
Weekend Forecast
(view the complete analysis and top 5 forecast in our Substack newsletter)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.