This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Tron: Ares
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $33 — 45 million
Roofman
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 7 million
Soul on Fire
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 5 million
Kiss of the Spider Woman
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 3.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The fan-driven nature of Tron: Ares is showing itself in late-stage pre-sales as pacing in our exhibitor samples is lagging behind that of comparable films such as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and other recent legacy franchise sequels. Previews are tracking to earn somewhere between $4 million and $5 million prior to Friday’s first full day. Barring an uptick after tonight’s early access screenings, current models for weekend performance now favor a path similar to 2017’s Blade Runner 2049.
- Early reviews are comparable to 2010’s Tron: Legacy in terms of Rotten Tomatoes critics’ marks (Ares stands at 54 percent currently, Legacy scored 51 percent).
- There’s no doubt that the core audience remains enthusiastic for this long-awaited sequel, and a full premium screen spread (plus 3D shows) will boost average ticket prices in addition to general anticipation among that crowd, but the film will need to at least slightly extend its audience reach into the walk-up friendly family market that helped propel Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire throughout its first weekend if topping $40 million is going to remain in play.
- Among the weekend’s counter-programmers, Roofman could benefit from positive reviews (84 percent), but the Channing Tatum-led dramedy is comping slightly below Caught Stealing in final pre-sale projections. Soul on Fire and Kiss of the Spider Woman will round out the major openers of a weekend which should see some films (especially younger-leaning ones) benefit from healthier-than-usual Sunday holds thanks to the Indigenous Peoples Day holiday on Monday.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 1 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($65.3 million), led by Terrifier 3‘s $18.9 million debut, and 51 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($132.9 million), led by Joker‘s $55.9 million second frame and The Addams Family‘s $30.3 million debut.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 12 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$35,500,000 |
NEW |
$35,500,000 |
~4,000 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. |
$6,700,000 |
-39% |
$54,300,000 |
~3,000 |
Roofman |
Paramount |
$5,000,000 |
NEW |
$5,000,000 |
~3,340 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse |
Universal |
$4,000,000 |
-25% |
$27,130,000 |
~3,200 |
Soul on Fire |
Sony |
$3,200,000 |
NEW |
$3,200,000 |
~1,300 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. |
$2,900,000 |
-30% |
$172,400,000 |
~2,300 |
Kiss of the Spider Woman |
Roadside Attractions |
$2,000,000 |
NEW |
$2,000,000 |
~1,000 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
$2,000,000 |
-66% |
$10,700,000 |
~3,345 |
Good Boy |
IFC |
$1,700,000 |
-28% |
$5,100,000 |
~1,800 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$1,600,000 |
-55% |
$128,000,000 |
~1,800 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.