This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Summer’s coda is slowly arriving as the release calendar slows down, schools resume, and holdovers become the name of the box office game.
Nobody 2
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 11.5 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$10 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Nobody 2 offers up another adult male-driven pic aiming to build on the first film’s performance, which included a $6.8 million debut mid-COVID.
- Pre-sales are on the slower end of expectations currently, trending well below The Naked Gun and A Working Man in exhibitor samples.
- Weapons will easily retain the #1 spot this weekend as the latest horror breakout rides the wave of word of mouth and stellar reviews. Zach Cregger’s original film could be a candidate to over-perform current forecasts (again) if it behaves even remotely like Sinners. Retention of IMAX screens will work in its favor as well.
- On the specialty front, Fathom Entertainment’s 35th anniversary re-issue of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles could be a sleeper to watch for. Originally planned for select performance dates beginning August 17, a recent change in plans moved up that release to this Friday after a strong wave of pre-sales had already been taken in for post-Sunday shows.
- On the aforementioned school front, an estimated 50 percent of domestic classrooms will be back in session by this Friday, climbing to nearly 60 percent next Monday.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 40 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($133.9 million), led by the $42 million start of Alien: Romulus and Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $30 million fourth frame, and 21 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($101.9 million), led by Good Boys‘ $21.4 million debut.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 17 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. |
$25,200,000 |
-42% |
$90,700,000 |
~3,202 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$12,600,000 |
-56% |
$51,900,000 |
~3,975 |
Nobody 2 |
Universal |
$9,100,000 |
NEW |
$9,100,000 |
~3,200 |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney / Marvel |
$9,000,000 |
-43% |
$246,700,000 |
~3,400 |
The Bad Guys 2 |
Universal |
$6,500,000 |
-39% |
$55,800,000 |
~3,500 |
The Naked Gun (2025) |
Paramount |
$5,300,000 |
-36% |
$42,200,000 |
~3,200 |
Superman (2025) |
Warner Bros. |
$5,100,000 |
-36% |
$340,700,000 |
~2,800 |
Jurassic World Rebirth |
Universal |
$3,400,000 |
-30% |
$332,700,000 |
~2,500 |
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) (35th Anniversary) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$2,500,000 |
NEW |
$2,500,000 |
TBD |
F1: The Movie |
Warner Bros. / Apple Studios |
$2,000,000 |
-31% |
$182,100,000 |
~1,100 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.