Tracking & Forecasts

Box Office Weekend Forecast: WEAPONS ($31M+) and FREAKIER FRIDAY ($29M+) Target a Counter-Programming Win for Theaters with Late Summer Debuts

Photo Credits: Larkin Seiple & Warner Bros. ("Weapons"); Photo by Glen Wilson © 2025 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved. ("Freakier Friday")

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

What is likely the last significant weekend of new releases this summer is shaping to deliver a pair of (seemingly) counter-programmers during the dog days of the season.

Weapons
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $31— 41 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$25 million

Freakier Friday
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $29 — 36 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$25 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • Weapons continues to impress in tracking and pre-sales trends as the Zach Cregger original enjoys an immaculate 100 percent fresh score from 51 Rotten Tomatoes critics currently.
    • Comparisons are tricky as the film leads titles such as 28 Years Later and Longlegs in pre-sale exhibitor samples. Sinners is generally considered off the table given its relative star power in Michael B. Jordan and filmmaker Ryan Coogler, plus a Good Friday/Easter holiday opening, but there’s little doubt Weapons is set to push Cregger more prominently into that group of auteur genre filmmakers who command interest among cinephiles and, potentially, general audiences.
    • Upfront appeal is strongest among men with a heavier skew toward them and those under the age of 35 than the likes of Final Destination: Bloodlines and Sinners. Like those films, IMAX and premium screens will boost demand and average ticket prices.
    • Thursday previews are currently tracking to earn a potential $4 million, setting the tone for what’s increasingly expected to be a word-of-mouth-driven late summer sleeper hit. Walk-up business could send performance toward higher forecasts
  • Freakier Friday has shown some volatility in pre-release forecasts and that continues to be the case with its imminent release. A 79 percent fresh score from 70 RT critics is a positive sign relative to most Disney live-action films.
    • The return of Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan is driving nostalgia among millennials, but appeal could branch out to younger generations of women and girls considering how little content is in theaters for that age group.
    • Combined with Disney’s inherent family appeal, walk-up business will be worth watching for this sequel. It will also have a fair premium screen presence with over 850 locations.
    • Including Wednesday’s double feature and “fan first” screenings, Freakier is currently pacing toward roughly $3.5 million or more in previews. Friday business is also looking strong, but there could be an element of frontloading if the film ends up playing mostly to fans of the original film and franchise instead of kids. Disney’s core “mom and daughter audience” tends to drive pre-sales for films such as this.
  • Also debuting in wide release midweek on Wednesday (plus Tuesday previews) is Angel Studios’ Sketch in a play for families and kids within the studio’s target values- and faith-based audience.
  • Notably, schools have started resuming session in pockets of the country with an estimated 10 percent starting back earlier this week. That figure will climb to approximately 20 percent by this Friday and over 30 percent next Monday, August 11, meaning Sunday drops for some films will start increasing from midsummer norms.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 18 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($154.9 million), led by Deadpool & Wolverine‘s third frame ($53.8 million) and the debut of It Ends With Us ($50 million), and 4 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($121.2 million), led by Hobbs & Shaw‘s second frame ($25.3 million) and the debut of Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark ($20.9 million).

Film
Distributor
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast
3-Day Change from Last Weekend
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 10
Expected  Location Count (as of Wed)
Weapons
Warner Bros.
$34,000,000
NEW
$34,000,000
~3,200
Freakier Friday
Disney
$30,500,000
NEW
$30,500,000
3,975
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Disney / Marvel
$18,300,000
-53%
$232,600,000
~3,900
The Bad Guys 2
Universal
$10,400,000
-53%
$42,800,000
~3,852
The Naked Gun (2025)
Paramount
$10,000,000
-41%
$34,000,000
~3,344
Superman (2025)
Warner Bros.
$8,600,000
-37%
$332,900,000
~3,200
Jurassic World Rebirth
Universal
$5,800,000
-34%
$328,400,000
~2,900
Together
NEON
$3,900,000
-42%
$18,600,000
~2,302
F1: The Movie
Warner Bros. / Apple Studios
$2,800,000
-33%
$178,700,000
~1,600
Sketch
Angel Studios
$2,300,000
NEW
$4,650,000
2,006

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

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