This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
January’s first major studio release anchors this week’s brief analysis and weekend forecast below.
Wolf Man
Universal
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$17 million (4-day)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13 – 18 million (4-day)
One of Them Days
Sony / TriStar
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$8 million (4-day)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 – 11 million (4-day)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Wolf Man had been the recipient of slightly more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks thanks to the Blumhouse brand, but mixed reviews from critics (58 percent from 83 Rotten Tomatoes submissions) combined with softening pre-sale trends are giving way to more cautious expectations with sample exhibition models moving closer to those of Speak No Evil rather than Smile 2. The film’s R rating will also limit some of the walk-up potential for horror-friendly teen audiences.
- Conversely, One of Them Days is trending upward thanks to a strong cast led by Keke Palmer and SZA along with their social pulls, plus a stellar 97 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes from 31 critics so far. Pre-sale samples are well ahead of The Book of Clarence, which opened on MLK last year, as well as 2023’s summer comedy Joy Ride.
- Holdovers will otherwise represent a strong share of the four-day holiday box office frame, especially family-led films such as Mufasa and Sonic 3.
- Notably, A24 will expand The Brutalist into further limited release (no count has been confirmed as of yet) before a wider expansion next week, Paramount’s September 5 will reach a limited footprint (around 120 locations) this weekend, and Fathom Events will open The Goonies‘ 40th anniversary re-issue at an estimated 1,175 locations.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 30 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($52 million on post-MLK weekend, led by the second weekend of Mean Girls) and 38 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($109.5 million, led by the debut of Glass on MLK weekend).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 20 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Wolf Man |
Universal Pictures / Blumhouse |
$13,200,000 |
NEW |
$15,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
~3,300 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
-30% |
$14,000,000 |
$206,800,000 |
~3,300 |
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera |
Lionsgate |
$8,400,000 |
-44% |
$10,300,000 |
$30,100,000 |
~3,008 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
$7,300,000 |
-36% |
$9,500,000 |
$217,300,000 |
~3,200 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
NEW |
$9,400,000 |
$9,400,000 |
~2,650 |
Moana 2 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$5,900,000 |
-10% |
$8,200,000 |
$445,000,000 |
~3,000 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
$4,600,000 |
-10% |
$5,800,000 |
$59,600,000 |
~2,500 |
Wicked |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
-22% |
$5,500,000 |
$466,400,000 |
~2,600 |
Nosferatu |
Focus Features |
$3,900,000 |
-43% |
$4,800,000 |
$89,700,000 |
~2,400 |
Babygirl |
A24 |
$2,200,000 |
-29% |
$2,700,000 |
$26,000,000 |
~1,700 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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