This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The winter box office gets a bit of a lift this weekend with two counter-programming features aimed to kickstart February in a positive light.
Dog Man
Universal
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $20 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $28 – 34 million
Companion
Warner Bros.
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $8 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 – 12 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Dog Man is tracking strong among parents with kids as the first family-driven release of the new year in a market that’s been relying on holdover strength from Mufasa, Sonic 3, and Moana 2. Key comps include similarly IP-based entries such as Trolls Band Together and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie as pre-sale and audience demographic samples for Dog Man closely resemble those titles.
- Companion marks the latest horror entry in theaters as the genre has hit a bit of a rut at the box office over the past year. Strong reviews (94 percent fresh from 88 Rotten Tomatoes critics) and Sophie Thatcher’s popularity among young adults might help lift the film above the $10 million domestically this weekend. Key comparisons include the recent Wolf Man, Heretic, and Speak No Evil, all fellow R-rated horror entries that opened within a similar range.
- On the holdover front, look for various entries to get some extra padding this weekend with no NFL playoffs to distract. A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist should continue to benefit from their Oscar nominations and strong word of mouth, though we haven’t received confirmation of any possible theater expansions for either at the time of this writing.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 44 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($51.4 million, led by Argylle and The Chosen: Season 4‘s debuts) and 42 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($52.1 million, led by the third weekend of Glass on Super Bowl weekend).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 2 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$31,700,000 |
NEW |
$31,700,000 |
~3,800 |
Companion |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$10,500,000 |
NEW |
$10,500,000 |
~3,200 |
Flight Risk |
Lionsgate |
$6,700,000 |
-42% |
$22,200,000 |
~3,161 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
$6,200,000 |
-23% |
$34,500,000 |
~2,500 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$5,700,000 |
-34% |
$228,800,000 |
~2,900 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
$3,100,000 |
-42% |
$230,400,000 |
~2,400 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
$2,700,000 |
-12% |
$67,300,000 |
~2,000 |
Moana 2 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$2,500,000 |
-41% |
$453,400,000 |
~1,900 |
The Brutalist |
A24 |
$2,400,000 |
-16% |
$13,500,000 |
~1,200 |
Den of Thieves: Pantera |
Lionsgate |
$2,000,000 |
-33% |
$34,900,000 |
~1,700 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.