This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for as little as $6.25 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
Disney and Pixar rekindled their summer magic over Father’s Day weekend as Inside Out 2 posted the second-highest animated opening weekend in history with $154.2 million.
Absent any competition for their audience, the sequel is trending toward another historic frame in its sophomore outing while Focus Features counter-programs with filmmaker Jeff Nichols’ latest original project.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die isn’t to be forgotten as it also heads toward a healthy third frame, and a handful of specialty and limited releases will fill in some modest gaps.
Inside Out 2
Disney & Pixar
Second Domestic Weekend Forecast: $76 – 87 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- As noted, Inside Out 2 scored the second best animated start in history for a traditional Friday-Saturday-Sunday opener. While Father’s Day weekend was in play, the film was not as much a benefactor of the Sunday holiday as other films given its nature as a female-leaning (62 percent, per Disney) player.
- Word of mouth is on par with classic Pixar titles thanks to a superb 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, complementing its 91 percent fresh rating from 231 critics.
- No competition for the family audience, a retention of premium screens, excellent buzz from box office headlines, the quality of the film itself, and the heart of summer season vacations are factors that should combine to propel one of the top five second frames ever for animation. The current five best are: The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($92.4 million), Frozen II ($86 million), Incredibles 2 ($80.4 million), Finding Dory ($73 million), and Shrek 2 ($72.2 million).
The Bikeriders
Focus Features
June 21, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $7.5 – 11 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- Writer and director Jeff Nichols has built a reputable following over the last decade-plus thanks to acclaimed films such as Take Shelter, Mud, Loving, and Midnight Special. With the first tried-and-true nationwide opening of his career and an ensemble led by Austin Butler, Jodie Comer, and Tom Hardy, Bikeriders is his most high-profile new release yet.
- Competition for the male audience could be notable with Bad Boys: Ride or Die still going strong into its third frame, although there may be room to coexist with a combination of cinephile and middle America appeal for the biker drama. Critics are also high on the film with an 85 percent fresh rating across 65 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes.
- The lack of a strong premium screen footprint holds back comparisons to similar films in pre-sale and box office tracking. Overall activity is pacing ahead of Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City last summer in our sample markets and exhibitor chains, though. The Anderson film went into wide release with nearly 1,000 fewer locations in its second weekend than Bikeriders will at more than 2,500 theaters.
Other Notable Releases This Weekend
- The Exorcism
- Firebrand
- GHOST: RITE HERE RITE NOW
- Ghostlight
- I Am: Celine Dion
- Thelma
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 17 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($106 million, when Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse returned to #1 in its third frame and No Hard Feelings debuted) and 35 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($189.9 million, when Toy Story 4 and Child’s Play debuted).
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for as little as $6.25 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 23 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $81,900,000 | $327,800,000 | ~4,440 | -47% |
| Bad Boys: Ride or Die | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $17,100,000 | $144,800,000 | ~3,600 | -49% |
| The Bikeriders | Focus Features | $10,200,000 | $10,200,000 | ~2,500 | NEW |
| The Garfield Movie | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $3,600,000 | $84,600,000 | ~3,300 | -24% |
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | 20th Century Studios | $3,400,000 | $164,000,000 | ~2,300 | -38% |
| IF | Paramount Pictures | $2,700,000 | $106,100,000 | ~2,900 | -25% |
| The Watchers | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,100,000 | $17,700,000 | ~2,600 | -40% |
| Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | Warner Bros. Pictures | $1,200,000 | $65,700,000 | ~1,400 | -54% |
| The Fall Guy | Universal Pictures | $900,000 | $89,700,000 | ~1,200 | -45% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.