This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
August kicks off with the debut of two major studio releases with continued holdover prowess from July’s recent blockbuster tentpoles, Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters.
Our full analysis and forecast for the weekend ahead:
Deadpool & Wolverine (2nd Weekend)
Disney & Marvel Studios
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $70 – 85 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Fresh off the sixth best opening weekend in history, Deadpool & Wolverine is smashing R-rated records in daily grosses to start the week. The crossover sequel will aim to leverage healthy word of mouth (96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes) and a continued hold on premium formats against the natural frontloaded nature of comic book films.
Trap
August 2, 2024
Warner Bros. Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $15+ million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $18 – 25 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- M. Night Shyamalan’s latest original film is drawing a variety of interest from young adult mystery/thriller fans and the filmmaker’s older fans. Pre-sales in our market samples are trending slightly above the pace of M3GAN‘s Thursday previews and significantly ahead of Knock of the Cabin‘s.
- The film’s PG-13 rating should be advantageous for walk-up business as the weekend approaches, especially as a potential spillover benefactor for the R-rated Deadpool & Wolverine. Breakout potential is notable, although the current review embargo puts some of those expectations in check for the time being. An absence of premium screen formats will also deflate average ticket prices compared to recent similar genre performers.
Harold and the Purple Crayon
August 2, 2024
Sony Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $6+ million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $5 – 9 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Unfortunately, this adaptation hasn’t yet caught momentum in final pre-release trends. It’s likely that continued demand for Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 among families, plus the start of school in some areas of the country, will mute opening weekend performance.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- The Firing Squad (Atlas Distribution)
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 11 percent below the same weekend in 2023 ($172.8 million, the third frame of Barbie and Oppenheimer and the opening of Haunted Mansion) and 7 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($143.9 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 4 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $80,500,000 | $372,900,000 | ~4,210 | -62% |
| Twisters | Universal Pictures | $22,300,000 | $195,400,000 | ~4,000 | -36% |
| Trap | Warner Bros. Pictures | $21,900,000 | $21,900,000 | ~3,200 | NEW |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $10,000,000 | $311,600,000 | ~3,400 | -31% |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $6,600,000 | $627,100,000 | ~2,800 | -23% |
| Harold and the Purple Crayon | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $5,600,000 | $5,600,000 | ~3,300 | NEW |
| Longlegs | Neon | $3,900,000 | $66,700,000 | ~2,000 | -42% |
| A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | $1,600,000 | $137,700,000 | ~1,100 | -48% |
| Bad Boys: Ride or Die | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $850,000 | $193,200,000 | ~800 | -36% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.