Weekend Forecast: Disney and Pixar’s INSIDE OUT 2 Accelerates, Pacing for 2024’s Best Debut Yet and a Likely $100 Million+ Domestic Launch

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The summer box office rebound is set to continue this Father’s Day weekend with Disney and Pixar launching the highly anticipated sequel, Inside Out 2, across an estimated 4,400 domestic theaters. That total will include more than 900 PLF auditoriums, 400 IMAX screens, over 275D-Box and 4D motion screens, and 2,500 3D locations.

While earlier models had indicated the picture would be destined for midsummer success and long playability, late tracking trends have accelerated this week and now point to potential for a nine-figure opening at the box office.

Only three animated releases (The Super Mario Bros. Movie‘s $146.4 million, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse‘s $120.7 million, and Minions: The Rise of Gru‘s $107 million) have eclipsed the $100 million domestic weekend mark in the post-pandemic era since 2019.

All-time, Pixar’s own top five debuts are within sight for Inside Out 2. Its predecessor claims the studio’s fifth best currently ($90.4 million), only topped by Toy Story 3 ($110.3 million), Toy Story 4 ($120.9 million), Finding Dory ($135.1 million), and Incredibles 2 ($182.7 million).

As recent box office starts go, 2024’s top performer thus far has been Dune: Part Two ($82.5 million). The most recent film to reach the $100 million threshold was Barbie ($162 million) almost eleven months ago.

Of note, Disney cautiously expects an $80 million to $85 million domestic debut as of earlier this week.

Here’s how the studio’s biggest animated release in five years is shaping up in the final hours of tracking.

Inside Out 2
Disney & Pixar
June 14, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $94 – 117 million

Key Tracking Factors:

• Pre-sales for the sequel to one of Pixar’s most beloved original films have continued to surge in recent days. Our sample markets indicate Thursday’s preview shows are pacing 289 percent ahead of The Garfield Movie at the same point and 143 percent ahead of Lightyear. Friday and weekend sales are even more robust, indicating more than just Pixar faithful are excited to see the film in theaters.
• Pent-up demand for an all-audience animated release is in play right now following the modest performance (relative to expectations) of Garfield last month and the absence of any true animation tentpole releases with significant appeal to young audiences and adults alike, outside of Kung Fu Panda 4, since the blockbuster success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie over a year ago.
• While Disney and Pixar have each had their commercial and strategic stumbles in recent years, both brands remain durable in their ability to corral a wide audience when the right content, marketing, and creative approaches are in play. Disney’s recent moderation of streaming output and refocus on the theatrical experience looks to be having a positive impact on Inside Out 2‘s pre-release buzz, with particular appeal among women of varying age groups.
• As noted in previous tracking, fans who have grown up with 2015’s original breakout film have regularly expressed excitement for the return of favorite characters and new ones such as Anxiety in this sequel. While many franchises often suffer from a long gap between sequels, it can also be argued that Pixar has a proven history for making those gaps work to a generational advantage (ala the Toy Story sequels, Finding Dory, and Incredibles 2).
• As noted, this weekend hosts Father’s Day on Sunday, which should boost attendance among father-daughter moviegoers and families across the board.