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Summer did not open in the way much of the industry hoped last weekend as The Fall Guy fell below most expectations and at the uber-conservative end of our final tracked range heading into the weekend. Tarot similarly opened on target with lukewarm projections with $6.5 million, although the 25th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace scored a respectable $8.7 million frame in dual celebration with “Star Wars Day”, a.k.a. May the 4th.
Despite a $27.7 million debut from the Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt-led action/comedy, word of mouth could still aid Fall Guy‘s longevity as the film boasts an 83 percent critics’ and 87 percent audience score as of May 7 on Rotten Tomatoes. Mother’s Day weekend may also give it a little extra padding to counter the loss of premium screens.
Moving forward, and hoping to pick up some of the slack in the early May market, will be Disney and 20th Century Studios’ fourth entry of the modern Planet of the Apes series when it hits cinemas this weekend.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
20th Century Studios
May 10, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $42 – 51 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- Pre-sales for this continuation of the narrative started by the three most recent films in the franchise reflect the established goodwill of the brand among fans. Kingdom‘s early access shows in PLF formats on Wednesday and wide Thursday previews combined are pacing 64 ahead of fellow legacy franchise sequel Creed III, while post-preview sales are approximately 10 percent behind Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. It should be noted, as always, those may not reflect one-to-one extrapolations for how the weekend plays out.
- Interest and awareness are strongest among men over the age of 35, which is to be expected for the 56-year-old IP. The franchise peaked in modern times with the Andy Serkis-led trilogy between 2011 and 2017 earning $532.3 million combined domestically. The apogee of performance among them was the middle chapter, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, with a $72.6 million bow and $208.6 million tally in 2014.
- Diminishing returns of the aforementioned legacy franchises and others are important to keep in mind as Apes leans more into dramatic action than something like the popcorn escapism of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, which broke out to an $80 million opening this spring.
- Kingdom is coming with a challenge to draw some casual audiences as the follow-up to a film, 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes, that already slipped 22 percent from Dawn‘s opening (to $56.3 million) and 30 percent from its final domestic total (to $146.9 million, the lowest of the three recent films).
- Early reviews are very encouraging with 84 percent of 43 Rotten Tomatoes critics giving Kingdom a fresh rating as of Wednesday morning.
- Mother’s Day will be a factor for most films on Sunday, inflating female-driven movies while likely deflating attendance for male-driven releases such as Kingdom.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 12 percent less than the same weekend in 2023 ($95.2 million, led by Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3‘s second weekend) and 48 percent less than the same weekend in 2019 ($160.3 million gross, led by Avengers: Endgame‘s $63.2 million third frame alongside Detective Pikachu‘s $54.4 million and The Hustle‘s $13 million debuts).
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 12 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | 20th Century Studios | $46,700,000 | $46,700,000 | ~4,000 | NEW |
The Fall Guy | Universal Pictures | $15,600,000 | $52,500,000 | ~4,002 | -44% |
Challengers | MGM | $5,300,000 | $38,500,000 | ~3,200 | -30% |
Tarot | Sony / Screen Gems | $3,500,000 | $12,200,000 | ~3,104 | -46% |
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (25th Anniversary) | 20th Century Studios | $2,800,000 | $488,000,000 | ~2,700 | -68% |
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,500,000 | $191,900,000 | ~2,300 | -45% |
Unsung Hero | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company | $2,400,000 | $16,800,000 | ~2,700 | -20% |
Kung Fu Panda 4 | Universal Pictures | $2,000,000 | $191,200,000 | ~2,200 | -20% |
Civil War | A24 | $1,700,000 | $65,000,000 | ~2,100 | -52% |
Abigail | Universal Pictures | $1,500,000 | $25,200,000 | ~2,400 | -36% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
I’m actually gonna bet that “Apes” is gonna overperform with around $60M. $55M if I’m being conservative, but I cannot imagine it only posting “Ghostbusters” numbers. Not with the reviews & enthusiasm around it. Time feels ripe for it to overperform after the long absence of this kinda big-screen odyssey.