This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory's Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
For more than two decades, the first weekend of May has often been viewed as the unofficially official start to summer movie season. Excluding the pandemic-stricken years of 2020 and 2021, this year will mark the first time since Mission: Impossible III in 2006 that the frame has not played host to a Marvel Cinematic Universe or Marvel-adjacent film.
The Fall Guy
Universal Pictures
May 3, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt have each enjoyed a high profile over the past year thanks to their respective successes from Barbie and Oppenheimer last summer. Both have been aggressively promoting Fall Guy in recent weeks, with Gosling notably going viral in several skits during his Saturday Night Live hosting duties a few weeks ago.
- Critics have lauded the film, helmed by action veteran David Leitch (Deadpool 2, theJohn Wick series, Hobbs & Shaw, Bullet Train), with an 86 percent approval rating across 107 Rotten Tomatoes reviews.
- Pre-sales trends have been comparable to other mid-range action films in the post-pandemic era, although the film's Wednesday early access shows skew models to some degree. Fall Guy has closely mirrored the pace of 2022's Bullet Train, which earned an estimated $1.1 million from early access shows and $3.5 million from Thursday previews in late summer. Its eventual debut weekend posted $30 million.
- While industry insiders have praised the film, Hollywood-related plots are often challenged to connect with audiences in middle America and outside coastal cities. That could be a factor to watch for if the film's expected walk-up sales don't reflect current expectations.
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (25th Anniversary Re-Issue)
20th Century Studios
May 3, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Despite some mixed reception toward certain franchise entries in theaters and on streaming over the last few years, the Star Wars brand remains incredibly strong overall and this weekend's "May the Fourth" Star Wars Day celebrations should be beneficial.
- Pre-sales for this re-release are showcasing the nostalgia of young millennials and Gen Zers, some of whom never saw the film in theaters during its original 1999 run. Advance admissions are notably ahead Return of the Jedi's 40th anniversary release (though it played in limited release) and last year's Titanic anniversary re-issue.
- One drawback to projections this weekend is a limited PLF footprint which benefited the aforementioned Titanic and Jedi re-releases. Walk-up sales could be limited as screen allocation may be capped by availability and fans represent some front-loading in demand.
Tarot
Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
May 3, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Horror films often draw a younger audience, which could counter-program the age 30-plus-leaning Fall Guy this weekend.
- Unfortunately, pre-sales are slow as of Wednesday with trends below those of the recent Abigail, Imaginary, and Night Swim.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 53 percent less than the same weekend in 2023 ($156 million, when Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opened to $118.4 million) and 62 percent less than the same weekend in 2019 ($193.9 million gross, driven by the historic second weekend of Avengers: Endgame).
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 5 | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| The Fall Guy | Universal Pictures | $33,000,000 | $33,000,000 | NEW |
| Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (25th Anniversary) | 20th Century Studios | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 | NEW |
| Challengers | MGM | $7,000,000 | $27,400,000 | -53% |
| Tarot | Sony / Screen Gems | $4,900,000 | $4,900,000 | NEW |
| Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | Warner Bros. Pictures | $4,600,000 | $188,400,000 | -36% |
| Unsung Hero | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company | $4,000,000 | $14,200,000 | -48% |
| Civil War | A24 | $3,900,000 | $62,700,000 | -44% |
| Abigail | Universal Pictures | $3,000,000 | $23,600,000 | -42% |
| Kung Fu Panda 4 | Universal Pictures | $2,800,000 | $188,900,000 | -22% |
| The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare | Lionsgate | $2,100,000 | $19,000,000 | -45% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
Despite the great cast, reviews and trailers, The Fall Guy does not feel like appointment viewing. That’s why it is underperforming and knowing Thursday numbers right now (3.15M), it may not make it to 30M opening.
I also would not be surprised if STAR WARS: THE PHANTOM MENACE underperforms. Disney put a strong poison pill in this movie, and it will turn off older fans.