This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This weekend hosts two major studio openers alongside a slew of limited release newcomers while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice aims to continue its strong run.
The Wild Robot
September 27, 2024
Universal Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $20 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $31 – 40 million+
Megalopolis
September 27, 2024
Lionsgate
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $5 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $5 – 10 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Wild Robot is benefiting from a wealth of goodwill sourced via its popular source material novel and appeal to kids and families of varying backgrounds. Pre-sales have continually built momentum in recent weeks as they outpace the likes of Elemental and The Garfield Movie. In the wake of last weekend’s lukewarm debut by Transformers One, there’s an opening in the market for a heartwarming, crowd-pleasing animated release (especially one with a 99 percent Rotten Tomatoes critics’ score) that should leg out well into October and November as a likely Oscar contender.
- Megalopolis is a play mainly for cinephiles and an older male audience with fans of Francis Ford Coppola driving interest, particularly in IMAX. Late stage trends are ahead of The Crow‘s recent reboot.
- With Hurricane Helene bearing down on the southeast coast of the United States, weather could impact box office activity in that area of the country.
Other Notable Releases Not Forecast Below:
- Azrael (IFC Films / Shudder)
- Bagman (Lionsgate)
- Howl’s Moving Castle (20th Anniversary) (Fathom Events)
- Lee (Roadside Attractions)
- My Old Ass (Expansion) (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Saturday Night (Platform) (Sony)
- Vindicating Trump (SDG Releasing)
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 3 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($77.9 million) and 3 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($83.4 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 29 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| The Wild Robot | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | $37,000,000 | NEW | $37,000,000 | ~3,900 |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $14,900,000 | -43% | $248,800,000 | ~3,800 |
| Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $9,800,000 | -60% | $39,100,000 | ~3,978 |
| Megalopolis | Lionsgate | $7,200,000 | NEW | $7,200,000 | ~1,700 |
| Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $3,500,000 | -40% | $27,100,000 | ~2,800 |
| Never Let Go | Lionsgate | $2,400,000 | -46% | $8,500,000 | ~2,667 |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $2,200,000 | -42% | $630,800,000 | ~1,400 |
| The Substance | Brainstorm Media | $1,300,000 | -60% | $5,700,000 | ~2,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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