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The first of mid-July’s two tentpoles arrives this weekend with an aim at not only dethroning the reigning Despicable Me 4 at the domestic box office, but also of posting one of the best box office debuts ever for a disaster film.
Our final analysis and weekend forecast:
Twisters
July 19, 2024
Universal Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $45+ million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $57 – 77 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As we’ve discussed in recent tracking reports, Twisters has seen pre-sale strength in key middle America markets that are often overlooked when projecting tentpole box office potential, increasing the volatility of potential outcomes. Furthermore, walk-up business and casual audience appeal beyond opening shows are still expected to be strong.
- The film’s marketing has honed in on that suburban and rural appeal with the film’s geographic setting in the expanding, real-world tornado alley stretching from the Midwest to the east coast of the United States. Additionally, recent trailers have highlighted the movie’s soundtrack anchored by songs from artists such as Luke Combs, Miranda Lambert, Lainey Wilson, Alison Kraus & Union Station, Chris Stapleton, and others popular among country music fans.
- Optimistically, current trends in our sample markets have closed in around 55 percent of the pre-sale pace of Jurassic World Dominion, which would point to a domestic debut over $80 million this weekend if that trend played on a national average level.
- Conversely, pre-sales activity in traditional urban and coastal markets represents the other side of the spectrum with trends more comparable to the likes of Furiosa and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.
- Middling out those models, Top Gun: Maverick has increasingly become a target for Twisters‘ potential as we’re seeing trends converge around half the pace of the 2022 Tom Cruise blockbuster.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- Oasis: Supersonic (A24) (July 16)
- Oddity (IFC Films) (July 18)
This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 56 percent under the same weekend in 2023 ($307.8 million, led by the phenomenal duo of Barbie and Oppenheimer‘s opening weekends) and 47 percent under the same weekend in 2019 ($253.6 million, led by Disney’s remake of The Lion King).
Film |
Distributor |
FSS Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 21 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Twisters |
Universal Pictures |
$69,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
~4,000 |
NEW |
Despicable Me 4 |
Universal / Illumination |
$27,100,000 |
$260,800,000 |
~4,200 |
-38% |
Inside Out 2 |
Disney / Pixar |
$14,200,000 |
$598,300,000 |
~3,600 |
-29% |
Longlegs |
Neon |
$7,800,000 |
$41,000,000 |
~2,510 |
-65% |
A Quiet Place: Day One |
Paramount Pictures |
$6,900,000 |
$128,600,000 |
~2,900 |
-39% |
Fly Me to the Moon |
Apple / Sony Pictures |
$3,900,000 |
$16,700,000 |
~3,356 |
-58% |
Bad Boys: Ride or Die |
Sony / Columbia Pictures |
$2,500,000 |
$189,200,000 |
~1,800 |
-41% |
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$28,900,000 |
~1,500 |
-55% |
MaXXXine |
A24 |
$880,000 |
$13,900,000 |
~1,500 |
-58% |
Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot |
Angel Studios |
$645,000 |
$11,300,000 |
~1,500 |
-52% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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