The industry has continued looking ahead past a soft summer start toward the heart of the season in July, a period which comes into view with this week’s update.
With the Independence Day holiday landing on Thursday, July 4 this year, Universal and Illumination are getting a head start on the long holiday frame by opening the latest sequel in their beloved animated franchise on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Angel Studios will open Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot on the Thursday holiday itself. It’ll be followed by A24 and Ti West’s trilogy-capper, MaXXXine, on Friday.
Despicable Me 4
Universal Pictures
July 3, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- The long-running franchise remains quite popular with parents and kids, as evidenced by the blockbuster run of 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru when it scored the best-ever Fourth of July weekend opening at $107 million on its way to $370.3 million domestically (part of an overall $939.4 million global run). That film was bolstered by the “Gentle-Minions” trend on Tiktok, though, so it’s safe to expect some natural regression.
- Initial pre-sales are modest, but that’s to be expected for a family release one month out with another major release (Inside Out 2) aiming for that exact wheelhouse in one week’s time.
- Competition will be very light in the back half of summer with no other major animated or kid-centric releases on deck until August 2’s Harold and the Purple Crayon. Staying power is expected to be lengthy as result, while opening against Inside Out 2‘s fourth frame provides plenty of distance from the Pixar tentpole and should allow both to coexist during life cycles.
- The midweek opening may create some back-loaded aspects to the film’s run, but it should still generate strong business with kids out of school and many adults (parents) taking off work for what will be a long four-day weekend beginning Thursday.
- Despicable Me 2 previously enjoyed major success with an opening during the exact same calendar alignment back in 2013. It posted an $84.2 million first weekend (Friday through Sunday) on its way to $368.1 million.
Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot
Angel Studios
July 4, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Angel Studios has developed a considerable grassroots following among faith-based audiences, having turned out a slew of low-budget, low-risk box office hit. This title could be a fair counter-programmer among adults within that segment.
- Though not a direct sequel, the film’s title suggests an intent to lean on the breakout success of last summer’s Sound of Freedom. The fellow Angel release wildly exceeded expectations to outperform multiple Hollywood tentpoles at the time, earning $184.2 million domestically.
- It’s difficult to expect the same lightning-in-a-bottle success as Sound of Freedom given most of Angel’s other releases have earned less than $20 million each in total. Still, much will depend on how aggressive and effective the studio’s forthcoming marketing campaign ends up being for what is positioned as their centerpiece summer release.
MaXXXine
A24
July 5, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Filmmaker Ti West’s trilogy-closer will almost certainly bring back fans of X and Pearl, which earned $11.8 million and $9.4 million during their respective domestic runs in 2022.
- In addition to the trilogy’s following, A24 remains a sturdy brand unto itself, fresh off their studio-best $25.7 million opening weekend by Civil War back in April.
- The arthouse-driven appeal of X and Pearl is likely to be in play again for this release, with more casual and mainstream demographics still gravitating toward A Quiet Place: Day One heading into its second frame.
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
as of 6/6/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | Wide (Y / N) | MPAA Rating | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 6/14/2024 | Cora Bora | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||||
| 6/14/2024 | Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | Y | PG | $75,000,000 | $94,000,000 | Available on Substack | $249,000,000 | $338,400,000 | Available on Substack |
| 6/14/2024 | Latency | Lionsgate | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | |||||
| 6/21/2024 | The Bikeriders | Focus Features | Y | R | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | Available on Substack | $22,900,000 | $40,000,000 | Available on Substack |
| 6/21/2024 | The Exorcism | Vertical Entertainment | Y | n/a | n/a | |||||
| 6/21/2024 | Janet Planet | A24 | N | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/21/2024 | Kinds of Kindness (Limited) | Searchlight Pictures | R | n/a | n/a | |||||
| 6/28/2024 | Blue Lock The Movie: -Episode Nagi- | Sony / Crunchyroll | n/a | n/a | ||||||
| 6/28/2024 | Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | Y | R | $14,000,000 | $21,000,000 | Available on Substack | $45,300,000 | $80,200,000 | Available on Substack |
| 6/28/2024 | A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | Y | PG-13 | $41,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Available on Substack | $116,900,000 | $168,500,000 | Available on Substack |
| 6/28/2024 | Janet Planet (Wide Expansion) | A24 | Y | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/3/2024 | Despicable Me 4 | Universal Pictures / Illumination | Y | PG | $61,000,000 | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | $262,900,000 | Available on Substack | Available on Substack |
| 7/4/2024 | Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot | Angel Studios | Y | PG-13 | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack |
| 7/5/2024 | MaXXXine | A24 | Y | R | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.