Tracking & Forecasts

4-Week Tracking: Illumination’s DESPICABLE ME 4 Could Swing a $100M+ 5-Day Fourth of July Bow

Photo Credits: Universal Pictures & Illumination ("Despicable Me 4")

The industry has continued looking ahead past a soft summer start toward the heart of the season in July, a period which comes into view with this week’s update.

With the Independence Day holiday landing on Thursday, July 4 this year, Universal and Illumination are getting a head start on the long holiday frame by opening the latest sequel in their beloved animated franchise on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Angel Studios will open Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot on the Thursday holiday itself. It’ll be followed by A24 and Ti West’s trilogy-capper, MaXXXine, on Friday.

Despicable Me 4
Universal Pictures
July 3, 2024

Key Tracking Factors:

  • The long-running franchise remains quite popular with parents and kids, as evidenced by the blockbuster run of 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru when it scored the best-ever Fourth of July weekend opening at $107 million on its way to $370.3 million domestically (part of an overall $939.4 million global run). That film was bolstered by the “Gentle-Minions” trend on Tiktok, though, so it’s safe to expect some natural regression.
  • Initial pre-sales are modest, but that’s to be expected for a family release one month out with another major release (Inside Out 2) aiming for that exact wheelhouse in one week’s time.
  • Competition will be very light in the back half of summer with no other major animated or kid-centric releases on deck until August 2’s Harold and the Purple Crayon. Staying power is expected to be lengthy as result, while opening against Inside Out 2‘s fourth frame provides plenty of distance from the Pixar tentpole and should allow both to coexist during life cycles.
  • The midweek opening may create some back-loaded aspects to the film’s run, but it should still generate strong business with kids out of school and many adults (parents) taking off work for what will be a long four-day weekend beginning Thursday.
  • Despicable Me 2 previously enjoyed major success with an opening during the exact same calendar alignment back in 2013. It posted an $84.2 million first weekend (Friday through Sunday) on its way to $368.1 million.

Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot
Angel Studios
July 4, 2024

Key Tracking Factors:

  • Angel Studios has developed a considerable grassroots following among faith-based audiences, having turned out a slew of low-budget, low-risk box office hit. This title could be a fair counter-programmer among adults within that segment.
  • Though not a direct sequel, the film’s title suggests an intent to lean on the breakout success of last summer’s Sound of Freedom. The fellow Angel release wildly exceeded expectations to outperform multiple Hollywood tentpoles at the time, earning $184.2 million domestically.
  • It’s difficult to expect the same lightning-in-a-bottle success as Sound of Freedom given most of Angel’s other releases have earned less than $20 million each in total. Still, much will depend on how aggressive and effective the studio’s forthcoming marketing campaign ends up being for what is positioned as their centerpiece summer release.

MaXXXine
A24
July 5, 2024

Key Tracking Factors:

  • Filmmaker Ti West’s trilogy-closer will almost certainly bring back fans of X and Pearl, which earned $11.8 million and $9.4 million during their respective domestic runs in 2022.
  • In addition to the trilogy’s following, A24 remains a sturdy brand unto itself, fresh off their studio-best $25.7 million opening weekend by Civil War back in April.
  • The arthouse-driven appeal of and Pearl is likely to be in play again for this release, with more casual and mainstream demographics still gravitating toward A Quiet Place: Day One heading into its second frame.

This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.

Extended 4-Week Tracking & Forecasts
as of 6/6/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode)
Release Date
Title
Studio
Wide (Y / N)
MPAA Rating
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total TARGET Forecast
6/14/2024
Cora Bora
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
6/14/2024
Inside Out 2
Disney / Pixar
Y
PG
$75,000,000
$94,000,000
$249,000,000
$338,400,000
6/14/2024
Latency
Lionsgate
PG-13
n/a
n/a
6/21/2024
The Bikeriders
Focus Features
Y
R
$8,000,000
$13,000,000
$22,900,000
$40,000,000
6/21/2024
The Exorcism
Vertical Entertainment
Y
n/a
n/a
6/21/2024
Janet Planet
A24
N
PG-13
n/a
n/a
6/21/2024
Kinds of Kindness (Limited)
Searchlight Pictures
R
n/a
n/a
6/28/2024
Blue Lock The Movie: -Episode Nagi-
Sony / Crunchyroll
n/a
n/a
6/28/2024
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Warner Bros. Pictures
Y
R
$14,000,000
$21,000,000
$45,300,000
$80,200,000
6/28/2024
A Quiet Place: Day One
Paramount Pictures
Y
PG-13
$41,000,000
$50,000,000
$116,900,000
$168,500,000
6/28/2024
Janet Planet (Wide Expansion)
A24
Y
PG-13
n/a
n/a
7/3/2024
Despicable Me 4
Universal Pictures / Illumination
Y
PG
$61,000,000
$262,900,000
7/4/2024
Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot
Angel Studios
Y
PG-13
7/5/2024
MaXXXine
A24
Y
R

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.

This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.

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