This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
April’s box office continues to take shape with another notable major studio release on deck in this week’s short-range outlook. Key updates on Snow White and other upcoming releases are also highlighted below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Sinners marks filmmaker Ryan Coogler’s latest project following his direction of both Black Panther films, Creed, and Fruitvale Station, all of which have gone on to critical and audience acclaim. Michael B. Jordan reunites with the auteur director once again in a leading role that should draw upon his growing star power. An IMAX release will be beneficial as well.
- The film’s gothic southern period setting could be a challenge for marketing, and an R rating will limit younger horror fan attendance. Still, the horror genre is due for an original breakout after a slew of releases in recent months that haven’t moved the needle past box office par. Early models are weighing positive social sentiment and trailer trends comparable to Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu and Jordan Peele’s Nope.
- Closer to the home front, pre-sales began earlier this week for Snow White with a pace near the low end of previous forecast expectations. We’ve adjusted projections downward in the wake of the short cycle combined with a sustained wave of negative buzz internal and external of the movie itself. Still, in a market starved for family content, the IP still can’t be ruled out when it comes to attracting at least a portion of the Disney faithful crowd and casual family attendees not paying attention to or caring about the other variables surrounding the film’s online discourse.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/13/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
3/19/2025 |
Hans Zimmer & Friends: Diamond in the Desert |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
The Alto Knights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
2.44 |
3/21/2025 |
Ash |
RLJ Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
Disney’s Snow White |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$37,500,000 |
$53,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$157,000,000 |
$113,000,000 |
2.69 |
3/21/2025 |
The Friend |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
Magazine Dreams |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$8,750,000 |
2.50 |
3/26/2025 |
Imagine Dragons: Live from the Hollywood Bowl |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/27/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 (Episodes 1-2) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$9,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
1.70 |
3/28/2025 |
The Ballad of Wallis Island |
Focus Features |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/28/2025 |
Death of a Unicorn |
A24 |
$5,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$15,500,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$20,600,000 |
2.75 |
3/28/2025 |
Sikandar |
Nadiadwala Grandson Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,750,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
1.33 |
3/28/2025 |
The Woman in the Yard |
Universal / Blumhouse |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
2.94 |
3/28/2025 |
A Working Man |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
3.67 |
4/3/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 (Episodes 3-5) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
1.67 |
4/4/2025 |
Hell of a Summer |
Neon |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
The Friend |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
The Luckiest Man in America |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$55,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$139,000,000 |
$222,000,000 |
$186,000,000 |
3.05 |
4/10/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 (Episodes 6-8) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$17,300,000 |
2.16 |
4/11/2025 |
The Amateur |
Disney / 20th Century Studios |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$26,700,000 |
2.97 |
4/11/2025 |
Drop |
Universal Pictures |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$29,500,000 |
2.68 |
4/11/2025 |
COLORFUL STAGE! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/11/2025 |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$24,500,000 |
4.45 |
4/11/2025 |
Warfare |
A24 |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
3.00 |
4/18/2025 |
The Ritual |
XYZ Films |
n/a |
||||||
4/18/2025 |
The Shrouds (Platform) |
Sideshow & Janus Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$36,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$135,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
2.80 |
4/18/2025 |
Sneaks |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
3.00 |
4/18/2025 |
The Wedding Banquet |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.