This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
It’s a feast for sore eyes: the first peak at summer box office tracking.
This week’s public update gives an early assessment of what to expect from Marvel Studios’ next anticipated chapter in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Thunderbolts*, as the second of three major MCU films set to hit theaters this year.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Early trailer reactions for Thunderbolts* have been largely positive with social channel comments citing the film’s mix of action and comedy as key drivers of interest. Trailer imprint trends are notable following the “Big Game Spot” during the Super Bowl last month and a heavy presence in front of Captain America: Brave New World‘s theatrical run.
- Opening in the first weekend of May has been a traditionally strong spot for Disney and Marvel films of all ilk, and it’s a notable improvement in high-profile content relative to last year which, with The Fall Guy ($27.8 million opening) taking pole position in lieu of strike-induced studio delays, was absent a Marvel film kicking off summer movie season for the first time since 2006 (excluding COVID years).
- Still, the state of the Marvel franchise is not as invincible as it used to be. Casual audiences have proven more selective about which Marvel films can earn their theatrical commitment, meaning reviews and lead-up marketing will again be important. Florence Pugh’s presence as the de facto star will be helpful to some extent, as is the return of Sebastian Stan’s Bucky and David Harbour as Red Guardian, but this is ultimately an ensemble film that relies largely on characters introduced post-Endgame and/or are not as familiar to the uninitiated or die-hard fans as the leads of the first three MCU phases.
- Aside from the Marvel tentpole, A Minecraft Movie continues to live up to our model’s family-driven expectations engine ahead of next week’s opening as pre-sales indicate it’s on course to deliver one of the top openings ever for a video game franchise alongside the likes of the Sonic franchise and Detective Pikachu.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/27/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
4/3/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 (Episodes 3-5) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
1.67 |
4/4/2025 |
Hell of a Summer |
Neon |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
The Friend |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
4/4/2025 |
The Luckiest Man in America |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$60,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
$64,000,000 |
$152,000,000 |
$229,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
3.05 |
4/4/2025 |
Princess Mononoke 4K |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/10/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 (Episodes 6-8) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$17,300,000 |
2.16 |
4/11/2025 |
The Amateur |
Disney / 20th Century Studios |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$29,600,000 |
2.96 |
4/11/2025 |
Drop |
Universal Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$29,500,000 |
2.68 |
4/11/2025 |
Gunslingers |
Lionsgate |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/11/2025 |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$4,500,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$33,000,000 |
4.40 |
4/11/2025 |
Warfare |
A24 |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
3.00 |
4/18/2025 |
COLORFUL STAGE! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
The Ritual |
XYZ Films |
n/a |
||||||
4/18/2025 |
The Shrouds (Platform) |
Sideshow & Janus Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$36,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$135,000,000 |
$109,000,000 |
2.79 |
4/18/2025 |
Sneaks |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
3.00 |
4/18/2025 |
The Wedding Banquet |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
4/25/2025 |
The Accountant 2 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$17,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
2.65 |
4/25/2025 |
Cheech and Chong’s Last Movie |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Legend of Ochi |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
2.92 |
4/25/2025 |
On Swift Horses |
Sony Pictures Classics |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Shrouds (Expansion) |
Sideshow & Janus Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (20th Anniversary) |
Walt Disney Pictures / Lucasfilm |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,500,000 |
1.50 |
4/25/2025 |
Until Dawn |
Sony / Screen Gems |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
2.67 |
5/2/2025 |
Shadow Force |
Lionsgate |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
2.00 |
5/2/2025 |
The Surfer |
Lionsgate & Roadside Attractions |
$1,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$9,600,000 |
2.74 |
5/2/2025 |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$67,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$76,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
$246,000,000 |
$219,000,000 |
2.88 |
5/4/2025 |
Monty Python and the Holy Grail (50th Anniversary 5/4/25 and 5/7/25) |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.