This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
March box office is pacing to come in 42 percent below the same month in 2024 ($444 million versus last year’s $760 million) with a lighter tentpole slate in play, but the outlook for April, which posted just around $430 million in 2024, may have more positive notes thanks to Minecraft and a handful of releases coming on our public five-week tracking this weekend.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Among current pre-sellers, A Minecraft Movie is the most notable. Following last week’s initial publication, we’re not seeing significant reason to sway from current projections yet based on family-centric comparison film models. That said, we continue to emphasize caution given the challenging nature of zeroing in on what ultimately will be the key demographics both in terms of pre-sellers and eventual casual audience turnout.
- Jumping to April 11 releases:
- The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 is in line with its two predecessors as tracking among the strongest of the franchise thus far. We’ve slightly modified multipliers for the first two given their individual one-week runs before this season finale launches in theaters.
- The Amateur currently shows social and interest metrics in line with recent releases such as Last Breath, Flight Risk, and Conclave. Competition factors include the third frame of A Working Man, direct opening overlap with Warfare, April 18’s Sinners, and April 25’s The Accountant 2.
- With the saturation of thriller/horror/suspense films in recent months, models are somewhat modest on Drop for now. Key audience overlap at the time of opening might include the third weekend of Woman in the Yard, plus the following week’s Sinners.
- Angel Studios has developed a steady box office pattern in recent times, though The King of Kings aims to expand the studio’s usual appeal to parents and kids with a timely animated film one week before Good Friday and Easter. It could slightly over-perform the studio’s recent efforts as a result and with minimal direct competition.
- Alex Garland and A24 will each bring out their fan followers with Warfare, but the realistic war action genre has been known to prove commercially limiting among casual moviegoers in the past. Reception could help lift prospects closer to release given the filmmaker and studio’s relative household names among cinephiles. Core competition includes The Amateur, third frame of Working Man, and The Accountant 2 two weeks later.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/6/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
3/7/2025 |
In the Lost Lands |
Vertical Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Mickey 17 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$17,500,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
2.86 |
3/7/2025 |
Night of the Zoopocalypse |
Viva Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl |
A24 |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Queen of the Ring |
Sumerian |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Rule Breakers |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$4,700,000 |
$10,800,000 |
$6,000,000 |
2.00 |
3/7/2025 |
The Senior |
Freestyle Releasing / Wayfarer Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Seven Veils |
XYZ Films / Variance |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/14/2025 |
Black Bag |
Focus Features |
$4,500,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
2.73 |
3/14/2025 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie |
Ketchup Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,700,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$10,800,000 |
3.60 |
3/14/2025 |
The Last Supper |
Pinnacle Peak |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
2.50 |
3/14/2025 |
Novocaine |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$32,600,000 |
3.62 |
3/14/2025 |
Opus |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$11,400,000 |
2.28 |
3/15/2025 |
MetOpera: Fidelio |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/19/2025 |
Hans Zimmer & Friends: Diamond in the Desert |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
The Alto Knights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
2.71 |
3/21/2025 |
Disney’s Snow White |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$52,000,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
$209,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
2.77 |
3/21/2025 |
The Friend |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
Magazine Dreams |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
2.50 |
3/26/2025 |
Imagine Dragons: Live from the Hollywood Bowl |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/27/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 (Episodes 1-2) |
Fathom Events |
$9,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
1.70 |
3/28/2025 |
The Ballad of Wallis Island |
Focus Features |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/28/2025 |
Death of a Unicorn |
A24 |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
2.75 |
3/28/2025 |
Sikandar |
Nadiadwala Grandson Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,750,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
1.33 |
3/28/2025 |
The Woman in the Yard |
Universal / Blumhouse |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
2.94 |
3/28/2025 |
A Working Man |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
3.67 |
4/3/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 (Episodes 3-5) |
Fathom Events |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
1.67 |
4/4/2025 |
Hell of a Summer |
Neon |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
The Luckiest Man in America |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$55,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$139,000,000 |
$222,000,000 |
$186,000,000 |
3.05 |
4/10/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 (Episodes 6-8) |
Fathom Events |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$17,300,000 |
2.16 |
4/11/2025 |
The Amateur |
Disney / 20th Century Studios |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$26,700,000 |
2.97 |
4/11/2025 |
Drop |
Universal Pictures |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$29,500,000 |
2.68 |
4/11/2025 |
COLORFUL STAGE! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/11/2025 |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
4.40 |
4/11/2025 |
Warfare |
A24 |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
3.00 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.