5-Week Box Office Tracking: THE CHOSEN: LAST SUPPER – PART 1 Could Set Franchise Records; Early Expectations for A WORKING MAN, DEATH OF A UNICORN and THE WOMAN IN THE YARD

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

This week’s update takes a look at a handful of key releases slated for the final frame of March, plus current forecasts for other upcoming releases.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Mickey 17 pre-sales began earlier this week and, thus far, our exhibitor samples indicate early interest is generally in line with where models had predicted in our first public forecast on the film earlier this year. Early trends are comparable to films such as Argylle, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Still, with high prestige factors and not much of a competitive slate ahead, we’ll continue monitoring for any necessary adjustments as release approaches over the next two weeks.
• Joining the public forecast this week:
  • The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 will showcase the first two episodes of the acclaimed Biblical adaptation that’s amassed a strong grassroots fan following in its first four seasons. Anticipation for the new chapters is high among fans as the series reaches the Last Supper storyline with robust exhibitor pre-sales in motion, plus very positive trailer impact and sentiment driving upward forecasts.
  • The Woman in the Yard should benefit from the reliable Blumhouse brand and its fan following, but competition with A24’s Death of a Unicorn and a general oversaturation of horror films in theaters recently could put a low ceiling on theatrical potential unless word of mouth and marketing break out in a notable way.
  • Early social and trailer impressions for A Working Man indicate the latest Jason Statham-led actioner, helmed by The Beekeeper‘s David Ayer, should perform well with men and women at a time on the calendar with minimal competition.

5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/20/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.