Tracking & Forecasts

5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: Are Osgood Perkins’ THE MONKEY and Kingdom Story’s THE UNBREAKABLE BOY Late February Sleeper Candidates?

Photo Credits: Nico Aguilar & NEON ("The Monkey"); Kristopher Kimlin & Lionsgate ("The Unbreakable Boy")

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

This week’s outlook takes a peak at the weekend of February 21, currently hosting two wide releases hoping to counter-program the second frame of Captain America: Brave New World.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • The Monkey marks writer/director Osgood Perkins and distributor NEON’s follow-up to the team’s hugely successful indie breakout, Longlegs, which earned over $74 million domestically and $125 million worldwide at the box office. Combined with source material from Stephen King and strongly received teaser trailers highlighting the dark comedy-horror tones, buzz among the horror community indicates this could be a sleeper candidate for another indie standout among genre fans.
  • Courting a totally different audience, The Unbreakable Boy will appeal to families and female audiences that helped drive WonderJesus Revolution, and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. Early trailer trends are encouraging for the Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company collaboration, with Zachary Levi’s leading presence and a heartwarming story aiming to connect with values-based moviegoers. A grassroots marketing campaign could further elevate commercial prospects, as has often occurred with Kingdom Story releases.
  • Also re-releasing for single-day staggered engagements in late February are the first four Harry Potter films via Fathom Events, although we are not publishing public forecasts for those at this time.
  • Closer to the home front, early trends for January 31’s Dog Man are warranting an increase in forecasts as models show healthy interest from parents as pre-sales samplers from exhibitors have exceeded prior modeling.
  • With pre-sales beginning for Captain America: Brave New World on Friday, January 17, we’ll offer up updates in the near future if current forecasts below need adjustment.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/16/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

Release Date
Title
Studio / Distributor
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast
1/24/2025
Brave the Dark
Angel Studios
$4,000,000
$7,000,000
$5,000,000
$10,900,000
$24,500,000
$16,000,000
3.20
1/24/2025
The Brutalist (Wide Expansion)
A24
1/24/2025
The Colors Within
GKIDS
1/24/2025
Flight Risk
Lionsgate
$9,000,000
$14,000,000
$11,000,000
$22,500,000
$45,000,000
$30,000,000
2.73
1/24/2025
Inheritance
IFC Films
1/24/2025
Presence
Neon
1/24/2025
Untitled GKIDS Film (1/24/25)
GKIDS
1/26/2025
Between Borders
Fathom Events
1/29/2025
(G)I-dle World Tour [iDol] in Cinemas
Trafalgar Releasing
1/31/2025
Companion
Warner Bros. Pictures
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$12,000,000
$24,000,000
$50,000,000
$31,000,000
2.58
1/31/2025
Dog Man
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
$21,000,000
$29,000,000
$25,000,000
$67,000,000
$115,000,000
$84,000,000
3.36
1/31/2025
Green and Gold (One Week Event)
Fathom Events
1/31/2025
Love Me
Bleecker Street
1/31/2025
Valiant One
Briarcliff Entertainment
$2,000,000
$6,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$12,000,000
$6,000,000
2.00
2/5/2025
Hellraiser (2025 Re-Issue)
Fathom Events
2/7/2025
Armand
IFC Films
2/7/2025
Heart Eyes
Sony / Spyglass
$8,000,000
$15,000,000
$11,000,000
$21,000,000
$39,400,000
$28,000,000
2.55
2/7/2025
Love Hurts
Universal Pictures
$8,000,000
$13,000,000
$9,500,000
$24,000,000
$45,000,000
$32,000,000
3.37
2/7/2025
Parthenope
A24
2/13/2025
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/13/25)
Fathom Events
2/14/2025
Armand (Expansion)
IFC Films
2/14/2025
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Expansion)
Sony Pictures Classics
2/14/2025
Captain America: Brave New World
Disney / Marvel Studios
$81,000,000
$107,000,000
$96,000,000
$109,000,000
$195,000,000
$280,000,000
$240,000,000
2.50
2/14/2025
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/14/25)
Fathom Events
2/14/2025
Paddington in Peru
Sony Pictures
$16,000,000
$25,000,000
$21,000,000
$25,400,000
$59,000,000
$88,000,000
$74,000,000
3.52
2/15/2025
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/15/25)
Fathom Events
2/16/2025
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/16/25)
Fathom Events
2/20/2025
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/20/25)
Fathom Events
2/20/2025
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/21/25)
Fathom Events
2/21/2025
The Monkey
Neon
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$12,500,000
$26,000,000
$50,000,000
$36,000,000
2.88
2/21/2025
The Unbreakable Boy
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company
$7,000,000
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
$21,000,000
$40,000,000
$37,500,000
3.75
2/22/2025
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/22/25)
Fathom Events
2/23/2025
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/23/25)
Fathom Events

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.