This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s outlook takes a peak at the weekend of February 21, currently hosting two wide releases hoping to counter-program the second frame of Captain America: Brave New World.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Monkey marks writer/director Osgood Perkins and distributor NEON’s follow-up to the team’s hugely successful indie breakout, Longlegs, which earned over $74 million domestically and $125 million worldwide at the box office. Combined with source material from Stephen King and strongly received teaser trailers highlighting the dark comedy-horror tones, buzz among the horror community indicates this could be a sleeper candidate for another indie standout among genre fans.
- Courting a totally different audience, The Unbreakable Boy will appeal to families and female audiences that helped drive Wonder, Jesus Revolution, and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. Early trailer trends are encouraging for the Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company collaboration, with Zachary Levi’s leading presence and a heartwarming story aiming to connect with values-based moviegoers. A grassroots marketing campaign could further elevate commercial prospects, as has often occurred with Kingdom Story releases.
- Also re-releasing for single-day staggered engagements in late February are the first four Harry Potter films via Fathom Events, although we are not publishing public forecasts for those at this time.
- Closer to the home front, early trends for January 31’s Dog Man are warranting an increase in forecasts as models show healthy interest from parents as pre-sales samplers from exhibitors have exceeded prior modeling.
- With pre-sales beginning for Captain America: Brave New World on Friday, January 17, we’ll offer up updates in the near future if current forecasts below need adjustment.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/16/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
1/24/2025 |
Brave the Dark |
Angel Studios |
$4,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$10,900,000 |
$24,500,000 |
$16,000,000 |
3.20 |
|
1/24/2025 |
The Brutalist (Wide Expansion) |
A24 |
||||||||
1/24/2025 |
The Colors Within |
GKIDS |
||||||||
1/24/2025 |
Flight Risk |
Lionsgate |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
2.73 |
|
1/24/2025 |
Inheritance |
IFC Films |
||||||||
1/24/2025 |
Presence |
Neon |
||||||||
1/24/2025 |
Untitled GKIDS Film (1/24/25) |
GKIDS |
||||||||
1/26/2025 |
Between Borders |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
1/29/2025 |
(G)I-dle World Tour [iDol] in Cinemas |
Trafalgar Releasing |
||||||||
1/31/2025 |
Companion |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
2.58 |
|
1/31/2025 |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$21,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$67,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
$84,000,000 |
3.36 |
|
1/31/2025 |
Green and Gold (One Week Event) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
1/31/2025 |
Love Me |
Bleecker Street |
||||||||
1/31/2025 |
Valiant One |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
2.00 |
|
2/5/2025 |
Hellraiser (2025 Re-Issue) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/7/2025 |
Armand |
IFC Films |
||||||||
2/7/2025 |
Heart Eyes |
Sony / Spyglass |
$8,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$39,400,000 |
$28,000,000 |
2.55 |
|
2/7/2025 |
Love Hurts |
Universal Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
3.37 |
|
2/7/2025 |
Parthenope |
A24 |
||||||||
2/13/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/13/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/14/2025 |
Armand (Expansion) |
IFC Films |
||||||||
2/14/2025 |
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Expansion) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||||
2/14/2025 |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$81,000,000 |
$107,000,000 |
$96,000,000 |
$109,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
$280,000,000 |
$240,000,000 |
2.50 |
2/14/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/14/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/14/2025 |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$16,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$25,400,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$74,000,000 |
3.52 |
2/15/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/15/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/16/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/16/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/20/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/21/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/21/2025 |
The Monkey |
Neon |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
2.88 |
|
2/21/2025 |
The Unbreakable Boy |
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$37,500,000 |
3.75 |
|
2/22/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/22/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/23/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/23/25) |
Fathom Events |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.