This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Our update this week centers around a slew of films slated to open on Christmas Day as the heart of the holiday season comes into full view and we close out the 2024 calendar’s range of box office outlooks which are, as always, subject to necessitated movement in the weeks ahead.
For inquiries on forward-looking box office projection services, please contact us.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Babygirl‘s early tracking metrics are strong by any standard for romantic dramas in the current market, drawing favorable trailer views and female interest scores comparable to Challengers, We Live In Time, and Anyone But You. Nicole Kidman’s buzz-worthy performance looks to be a driver, as will distributor A24’s homegrown fan base.
- A Complete Unknown will try to marry the older audience appeal of its lead character, Bob Dylan, with star Timothée Chalamet’s draw among younger audiences. While expected to lean toward the 40-plus demographic, one that has been very selective in the movies they choose to see in theaters, early reviews for James Mangold’s biopic are strong.
- The Fire Inside hopes to rekindle some of the inspirational sport movie magic that has anchored past holiday releases like last year’s The Boys in the Boat and The Iron Claw. Appeal should be strong in Black communities alongside general families as target audiences.
- Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu is already standing out in the realm of social buzz, often an early indicator of a sleeper hit. Fans of the director, who helmed The Northman, The Lighthouse, and The Witch previously, and horror aficionados are highly anticipating this revival of an iconic horror IP. Buzz around Lily Rose-Depp and Willem Dafoe’s performances are key, but it’s the mystery surrounding the reveal of Bill Skarsgård’s Count Orlok sending anticipation for the film to the next level. Horror movies rarely find big box office success around the holidays, but this could be a major exception if it branches out into more commercial appeal than Eggers’ previous projects.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/21/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
5-Day PINPOINT Opening Weekend Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
11/27/2024 |
September 5 (Limited) |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
11/27/2024 |
Moana 2 |
$82,000,000 |
$93,000,000 |
$87,000,000 (+6%) |
$140,000,000 |
$325,000,000 |
$384,000,000 |
$371,000,000 (+6%) |
11/27/2024 |
Queer |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/5/2024 |
Pushpa 2: The Rule |
$5,500,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
|
12/5/2024 |
King + Country’s A Drummer Boy Christmas (Limited Engagement 12/5 – 12/9/24) |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/6/2024 |
Get Away |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/6/2024 |
Interstellar (10th Anniversary Re-Issue) |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
12/6/2024 |
Hard Truths (Limited) |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/6/2024 |
Nightbitch |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/6/2024 |
The Return |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
12/6/2024 |
Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 (-25%) |
$1,750,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,300,000 (-25%) |
|
12/6/2024 |
Werewolves |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
12/6/2024 |
Y2K |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,900,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
|
12/13/2024 |
Kraven the Hunter |
$16,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$41,500,000 |
$72,000,000 |
$52,200,000 |
|
12/13/2024 |
Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim |
$15,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$44,000,000 |
$84,500,000 |
$49,500,000 |
|
12/13/2024 |
Nickel Boys (NYC Only) |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/13/2024 |
September 5 (Exclusive) |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/20/2024 |
The Brutalist |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/20/2024 |
Homestead |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
|
12/20/2024 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
$57,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$240,000,000 |
$345,000,000 |
$305,000,000 |
|
12/20/2024 |
Nickel Boys (LA Expansion) |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/20/2024 |
The Room Next Door |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/20/2024 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
$53,000,000 |
$62,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$149,000,000 |
$181,000,000 |
$163,000,000 |
|
12/25/2024 |
Babygirl |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,700,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
|
12/25/2024 |
Better Man (Platform) |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/25/2024 |
A Complete Unknown |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
|
12/25/2024 |
The Fire Inside |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
|
12/25/2024 |
Nosferatu |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
|
12/27/2024 |
2073 |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.