The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- 2025 is fast coming to a close, and the year overall will need some of the remaining holiday tentpoles to over-perform in order to reach previous targets of $9 billion domestically. We’re currently expecting between $8.8 and $8.9 billion, so the margin for error is slim enough for a last minute surge to get the box office across that line.
- Avatar: Fire and Ash is highlighted again this week as the final upper-tier performer on the slate until early 2026. Pre-sales remain well off the pace of The Way of Water but we continue emphasizing the longtail run and likely backloading caused not just by holiday timing but audience preference to see the film in premium formats (not to mention those who may be waiting for more non-3D showtimes to appear). Average ticket prices are also well above normal even by premium movie standards, so we are slightly weighing above the range median for opening expectations at the moment.
- The Housemaid and David remain sleeper-to-breakout candidates next week as counter-programmers smartly positioned on the calendar.
- Peeking into 2026, we’re extra cautious on Soulm8te until marketing has a chance to kick in after the holidays. The recent underperformance of M3GAN 2.0 and same-weekend competition against Primate stand out as primary factors.
- Our early outlooks for Mercy lean on the conservative end as the film debuts the weekend after the MLK holiday and directly up against NFL championship games that Sunday. Trailers have also generated mixed social reactions up this point.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/11/25
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
12/19/2025 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney |
$90,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$100,100,000 |
$450,000,000 |
$555,000,000 |
$505,000,000 |
12/19/2025 |
David |
Angel Studios |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$83,000,000 |
$125,000,000 |
$110,000,000 |
12/19/2025 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$18,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$136,000,000 |
$108,000,000 |
12/19/2025 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
Paramount Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$95,000,000 |
$156,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
12/25/2025 |
Anaconda (2025) |
Sony Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$83,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
12/25/2025 |
Marty Supreme (Expansion) |
A24 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
12/25/2025 |
Song Sung Blue |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
1/9/2026 |
Greenland 2: Migration |
Lionsgate |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$26,500,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
1/9/2026 |
I Was a Stranger (Expansion) |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
1/9/2026 |
Primate |
Paramount Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$16,300,000 |
1/9/2026 |
Soulm8te |
Universal Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
1/16/2026 |
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
Sony Pictures |
$18,000,000 |
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1/23/2026 |
Clika |
Sony Pictures |
$2,000,000 |
|||||
1/23/2026 |
Mercy |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$8,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.