The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Freakier Friday remains a candidate to accelerate in pre-sales during its final week considering the drought of female-driven content this summer, but they aren’t yet at the pace we’d like to see relative to other metrics to support previous bullish forecasts. Positive early social reactions could yet yield a bigger performance than current projections, but we’ll see how things play out next week.
- Meanwhile, Weapons‘ pre-sale and positive review trends are supporting expectations for a late summer sleeper horror hit. Again, next week’s pace will help determine how high it can go as casual audience interest will begin to develop more.
- On the new addition front:
- Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle could be shaping up to become the next domestic anime breakout following its box office record-breaking start in Japan. An IMAX and PLF presence stateside will be of notable benefit.
- Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale aims to reunite its target older fan base for one last chapter as the third cinematic release spinning off from the highly successful television series.
- We’ll offer up public forecasts for The Long Walk likely with next week’s update.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/31/25
(NOTE: Range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
8/6/2025 |
Sketch |
Angel Studios |
$1,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
|||
8/8/2025 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$30,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$77,000,000 |
$131,000,000 |
|||
8/8/2025 |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$27,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$78,000,000 |
$142,000,000 |
|||
8/14/2025 |
Shin Godzilla |
GKIDS |
|||||||
8/15/2025 |
Americana |
Lionsgate |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
|||
8/15/2025 |
Eli Roth Presents: Jimmy and Stiggs |
Iconic Releasing |
|||||||
8/15/2025 |
Highest 2 Lowest |
A24 |
|||||||
8/15/2025 |
Nobody 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
|||
8/17/2025 |
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) 35th Anniversary |
Fathom Entertainment |
|||||||
8/21/2025 |
Black Swan (15th Anniversary in IMAX) |
Searchlight Pictures |
|||||||
8/22/2025 |
Afterburn |
Falling Forward Films |
|||||||
8/22/2025 |
Honey Don’t! |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
|||
8/22/2025 |
Lurker |
Mubi |
|||||||
8/22/2025 |
Ne Zha 2 (Re-Issue in English Language) |
A24 |
|||||||
8/22/2025 |
Untitled NEON (8/22/25) |
NEON |
|||||||
8/29/2025 |
Caught Stealing |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
|||
8/29/2025 |
Grand Prix of Europe |
Viva Pictures |
|||||||
8/29/2025 |
Jaws (50th Anniversary Re-Issue) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
|||||
8/29/2025 |
The Roses |
Searchlight Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
|||
8/29/2025 |
Run |
Falling Forward Films |
|||||||
8/29/2025 |
The Toxic Avenger Unrated |
Cineverse / Iconic Events Releasing |
|||||||
9/5/2025 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
|||||||
9/5/2025 |
Light of the World |
Salvation Poem Project |
|||||||
9/12/2025 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony Pictures |
|||||||
9/12/2025 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
|||||||
9/12/2025 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
|||||||
9/12/2025 |
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues |
Bleecker Street |
|||||||
9/12/2025 |
Toy Story (30th Anniversary) |
Disney |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.