Tracking & Forecasts

6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA INFINITY CASTLE and DOWNTON ABBEY: THE GRAND FINALE Early Outlooks; WEAPONS and FREAKIER FRIDAY Updates

Photo Credits: Ben Smithard & Focus Features ("Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale"); Yûichi Terao & Sony ("Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle")

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • Freakier Friday remains a candidate to accelerate in pre-sales during its final week considering the drought of female-driven content this summer, but they aren’t yet at the pace we’d like to see relative to other metrics to support previous bullish forecasts. Positive early social reactions could yet yield a bigger performance than current projections, but we’ll see how things play out next week.
  • Meanwhile, Weapons‘ pre-sale and positive review trends are supporting expectations for a late summer sleeper horror hit. Again, next week’s pace will help determine how high it can go as casual audience interest will begin to develop more.
  • On the new addition front:
    • Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle could be shaping up to become the next domestic anime breakout following its box office record-breaking start in Japan. An IMAX and PLF presence stateside will be of notable benefit.
    • Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale aims to reunite its target older fan base for one last chapter as the third cinematic release spinning off from the highly successful television series.
    • We’ll offer up public forecasts for The Long Walk likely with next week’s update.

6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/31/25

(NOTE: Range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)

Release Date
Title
Distributor
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast
8/6/2025
Sketch
Angel Studios
$1,500,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$13,000,000
8/8/2025
Freakier Friday
Disney
$30,000,000
$45,000,000
$77,000,000
$131,000,000
8/8/2025
Weapons
Warner Bros. Pictures
$27,000,000
$37,000,000
$78,000,000
$142,000,000
8/14/2025
Shin Godzilla
GKIDS
8/15/2025
Americana
Lionsgate
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$5,000,000
$16,000,000
8/15/2025
Eli Roth Presents: Jimmy and Stiggs
Iconic Releasing
8/15/2025
Highest 2 Lowest
A24
8/15/2025
Nobody 2
Universal Pictures
$11,000,000
$16,000,000
$29,000,000
$44,000,000
8/17/2025
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) 35th Anniversary
Fathom Entertainment
8/21/2025
Black Swan (15th Anniversary in IMAX)
Searchlight Pictures
8/22/2025
Afterburn
Falling Forward Films
8/22/2025
Honey Don’t!
Focus Features
$3,000,000
$8,000,000
$7,000,000
$25,000,000
8/22/2025
Lurker
Mubi
8/22/2025
Ne Zha 2 (Re-Issue in English Language)
A24
8/22/2025
Untitled NEON (8/22/25)
NEON
8/29/2025
Caught Stealing
Sony Pictures
$4,000,000
$9,000,000
$10,000,000
$27,000,000
8/29/2025
Grand Prix of Europe
Viva Pictures
8/29/2025
Jaws (50th Anniversary Re-Issue)
Universal Pictures
$4,000,000
$9,000,000
8/29/2025
The Roses
Searchlight Pictures
$4,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$30,000,000
8/29/2025
Run
Falling Forward Films
8/29/2025
The Toxic Avenger Unrated
Cineverse / Iconic Events Releasing
9/5/2025
The Conjuring: Last Rites
Warner Bros. Pictures
9/5/2025
Light of the World
Salvation Poem Project
9/12/2025
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
Sony Pictures
9/12/2025
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Focus Features
9/12/2025
The Long Walk
Lionsgate
9/12/2025
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues
Bleecker Street
9/12/2025
Toy Story (30th Anniversary)
Disney

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.