The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- December 19:
- 2025’s final top-tier box office tentpole, Avatar: Fire and Ash, will land on the final weekend of Christmas shopping and the start of vacations from school and work. This part of the calendar is notoriously challenging to forecast as those external factors can wreak havoc on advance box office tracking. Plenty of fan-driven films have opened around this time of year, though, and James Cameron’s Avatar franchise has twice proven to be very leggy even after his die-hard fans show up on opening weekend.
- With that said, the calendar has not aligned exactly this way since 2020 (insert pandemic-related asterisks here) and 2014. Notably, the third Hobbit film opened during the latter window, but with a midweek Wednesday launch. It may be a fair parallel once scaled for Fire and Ash, but time will tell and there are other models with justifiable weight.
- Our expectation is that Fire and Ash will likely see some diminished returns from The Way of Water, which bowed to $134.1 million domestically when its previews began ten days from Christmas in 2022. Fire and Ash has a shorter lead-in to peak holiday timing with previews starting seven days before Christmas.
- The Avatar three-quel will dominate IMAX and premium formats from the get-go and remain a stronghold for movie theaters through the holidays and early into the new year. However, we anticipate casual audience interest will slightly regress from Way of Water as that initial sequel had 13 years of anticipation behind it and not as much competition. TWOW was the only major release of its weekend three years ago, while the runner-up film at the box office that frame was a six-week-old Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($5.35 million).
- Ultimately, it could be a very tight race for 2025’s top domestic grosser as Wicked: For Good has the edge in our models currently. Worldwide, though, expect Fire and Ash to have another commanding run.
- On said competition front, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants will court its own fans and family crowds over the holiday corridor (similar to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, but that flick opened the Wednesday after Way of Water‘s debut). A direct bow against the Avatar pic will serve as counter-programming for younger audiences and parents.
- Similarly, The Housemaid is already generating strong social and trailer trends as it opens directly against Fire and Ash. Female audiences will be the primary driver here, but there could be some crossover appeal and audience expansion if word of mouth sets in for the first adaptation of Freida McFadden’s popular book series led by Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried.
- Other updates:
- Wicked: For Good continues to pace at incredible levels even with a massive fan rush behind pre-sales in mind. Even with front-loading in mind, another strong run and boost from an expanded audience could position it to be the year’s top grossing domestic release.
- Zootopia 2 could be in a tougher fight for family audiences than Moana 2 was against the leggy first Wicked one year ago, but the proximity of two holiday box office behemoths is certainly presenting an imbalance in modeling. We still expect the Disney sequel to capitalize on goodwill and a dearth of animated films in recent months, but it’s best to slightly scale back from more bullish numbers for now. Pre-sale volume is not at the level of Moana 2, though it has shown early signs of late-stage momentum akin to that of Inside Out 2.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/6/25
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
11/12/2025 |
j-hope Tour ‘HOPE ON THE STAGE’ THE MOVIE |
Trafalgar Releasing |
||||||
11/14/2025 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$36,800,000 |
$51,900,000 |
$50,000,000 |
11/14/2025 |
Keeper |
NEON |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
11/14/2025 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount Pictures |
$19,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$62,000,000 |
$113,000,000 |
$104,000,000 |
11/14/2025 |
Wicked (2024 Re-Issue) |
Universal Pictures |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$700,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,300,000 |
11/21/2025 |
Rental Family |
Disney |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
11/21/2025 |
SISU: ROAD TO REVENGE |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
11/21/2025 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal Pictures |
$160,000,000 |
$190,000,000 |
$182,000,000 |
$463,000,000 |
$550,000,000 |
$530,000,000 |
11/26/2025 |
Eternity |
A24 |
$3,500,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
11/26/2025 |
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery |
Netflix |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
11/26/2025 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$102,000,000 |
$122,000,000 |
$111,000,000 |
$350,000,000 |
$439,000,000 |
$405,000,000 |
11/28/2025 |
The Thing With Feathers |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
12/5/2025 |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$50,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$132,000,000 |
$101,000,000 |
12/5/2025 |
JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution |
GKIDS |
$1,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,800,000 |
$4,300,000 |
$2,500,000 |
12/12/2025 |
Ella McCay |
Disney |
$3,000,000 |
available on Substack |
available on Substack |
|||
12/19/2025 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney |
$110,000,000 |
available on Substack |
available on Substack |
|||
12/19/2025 |
David |
Angel Studios |
$4,000,000 |
available on Substack |
available on Substack |
|||
12/19/2025 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$15,000,000 |
available on Substack |
available on Substack |
|||
12/19/2025 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
Paramount Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
available on Substack |
available on Substack |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.