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Following a brief reprieve from new releases on the weekend after Memorial Day, the first full weekend of June offers up two major studio releases that hope give summer's second quarter a dose of fresh momentum at the box office.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Sony & Columbia Pictures
Opening Weekend Range: $50 - 60 million
Key Tracking Factors
- Early tracking metrics across social media and trailer channels indicate continued excitement in the franchise with Will Smith and Martin Lawrence returning to their iconic two-hander roles. Appeal to a diverse crowd and the under-served Black communities will be notable, while the lack of competition from other action films until July bodes well for staying power if reception is positive.
- On that note, lingering holdover prowess from Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga could be worth keeping in mind if it breaks out beyond its core fan base, although that film will be entering its third weekend of play.
- The 2020 three-quel proved that franchise still has plenty of life in it. Bad Boys for Life scored an MLK weekend record with its $62.5 million three-day start, part of an overall $204.4 million domestic run anchored by healthy word of mouth as one of the last major box office hits before the pandemic took full effect.
The Watchers
Warner Bros. Pictures
Opening Weekend Range: $13 - 19 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- Ishana Night Shyamalan's first major feature could attract horror genre followers and fans of her prolific filmmaker father, M. Night Shyamalan. A PG-13 rating will bring extra potential to reach younger moviegoers in the early summer market after school has gone on break, and counter-programming upside against the R-rated, adult-skewing action release of the weekend should be a smart play.
- While horror remains a profitable venture for studios, 2024 has so far delivered a few modest and under-performers from that category (Abigail, Imaginary, Night Swim) due to slight oversaturation and a lack of standout marketing and/or content. Pre-release buzz and ad campaigns will be important for this original work.
- Direct competition may not be a factor, but the lack of an established brand (outside the Shyamalan name) and growing anticipation for A Quiet Place: Day One (opening in Watchers') fourth frame in late June) are elements to watch for in measuring overall demand and interest levels.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
Extended 4-Week Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/9/24
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast | Pinpoint OW Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast | Pinpoint Total Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 5/17/2024 | Back to Black | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | ||||||
| 5/17/2024 | IF | $28,000,000 | $37,000,000 | $29,000,000 | $87,000,000 | $123,000,000 | $97,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 5/17/2024 | The Strangers: Chapter 1 | $9,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $10,000,000 | +11% | $19,000,000 | $39,000,000 | $28,300,000 | +11% | Lionsgate |
| 5/24/2024 | Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | $40,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $105,000,000 | $160,000,000 | $149,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 5/24/2024 | The Garfield Movie | $42,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $48,000,000 | -4% | $138,100,000 | $201,000,000 | $163,200,000 | -4% | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 5/24/2024 | Sight | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $6,500,000 | $17,000,000 | $11,000,000 | Angel Studios | ||
| 5/31/2024 | 1992 | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate | ||||||
| 5/31/2024 | Ezra | n/a | n/a | Bleecker Street | ||||||
| 5/31/2024 | Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle | $3,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $5,300,000 | $9,900,000 | $7,400,000 | Sony / Crunchyroll | ||
| 5/31/2024 | Robot Dreams | n/a | n/a | Neon | ||||||
| 5/31/2024 | The Young Woman and the Sea | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $33,000,000 | $21,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures | ||
| 6/7/2024 | Bad Boys: Ride or Die | $50,000,000 | $60,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $145,000,000 | $194,000,000 | $171,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 6/7/2024 | The Watchers | $13,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $37,300,000 | $62,300,000 | $49,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.