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The post-Fourth of July frame will hope for holdovers to continue to carrying some midsummer weight in between tentpole releases, but at least one opener this weekend could surprise with a strong showing.
Fly Me to the Moon
July 12, 2024
Apple & Sony Pictures
Domestic Weekend Forecast: $9 – 14 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Pre-sales have performed generally in line with expectations in recent weeks as the romantic comedy hopes to lean on its star power for appeal to adults. Current trends are approximately 29 percent behind the same-point pace of last summer’s No Hard Feelings. As outlined in our previous tracking reports, the period setting will probably hinder appeal to younger adults.
Longlegs
July 12, 2024
Neon
Domestic Weekend Forecast: $13 – 18 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Horror has been somewhat overexposed in early 2024, but this indie release is garnering strong social and pre-sales traction that indicates notable breakout potential for distributor Neon. Online buzz is soaring among genre fans, a major driving factor in business that’s pacing ahead of A24’s Talk to Me when it opened last summer and ahead of 2019’s Crawl. Screen capacities and front-loaded consumer behavior are contributing to volatile forecasts, though.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- The Lion King (30th Anniversary Re-Issue)
- Lumina
This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 25 percent under the same weekend in 2023 ($134.2 million, led by the debut of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning) and 1 percent under the same weekend in 2019 ($114.1 million, led by the second frame of Spider-Man: Far from Home).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 14 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $40,800,000 | $200,200,000 | ~4,428 | -46% |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $20,000,000 | $570,500,000 | ~3,600 | -34% |
| Longlegs | Neon | $16,500,000 | $16,500,000 | ~2,500 | NEW |
| A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | $12,800,000 | $117,200,000 | ~3,600 | -38% |
| Fly Me to the Moon | Apple / Sony Pictures | $11,100,000 | $11,100,000 | ~3,300 | NEW |
| Bad Boys: Ride or Die | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $4,500,000 | $185,100,000 | ~2,200 | -32% |
| Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | $3,100,000 | $27,700,000 | ~2,500 | -42% |
| MaXXXine | A24 | $2,100,000 | $10,900,000 | ~2,450 | -69% |
| Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot | Angel Studios | $2,100,000 | $10,400,000 | ~2,200 | -32% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.